ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 26, 2024

Key Takeaways from ISW:

• Russian President Vladimir Putin explicitly rejected a suggestion reportedly considered by US President-elect Donald Trump’s team in early November 2024 that would delay Ukraine’s membership in NATO for at least a decade as a condition for ending the war in Ukraine.
• Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov reiterated Putin’s false claims that the current Ukrainian government is illegitimate and cannot be a legitimate negotiating partner for Russia.
• Russian forces have likely seized Kurakhove following two months of intensified offensive operations aimed at seizing the settlement and eliminating the Ukrainian salient north and south of the settlement.
• Russian forces may struggle to advance rapidly further west of Kurakhove along the H-15 Kurakhove-Pokrovske highway should Ukrainian forces choose to defend in the Kurakhivska TPP and Russian forces fail to outflank Ukrainian positions in the TPP near Dachne or Ulakly.
• Elements of the 51st CAA have been the main forces participating in the seizure of Kurakhove amid ongoing efforts to centralize and formalize elements of the 51st CAA within the Russian military.
• Russian forces conducted a large series of missile and drone strikes targeting Ukrainian energy infrastructure on the night of December 24 to 25, seriously damaging thermal power plants (TPPs).
• Ukrainian forces conducted a successful strike on December 25 against the command post of a Russian unit operating in Kursk Oblast.
• Ukrainian forces struck a Russian ammunition depot in Rostov Oblast and Russian defense industrial base (DIB) facilities in Rostov and Tambov oblasts on December 25 and 26.
• A Russian air defense system reportedly shot an Azerbaijan Airlines Embraer 190 passenger aircraft over the Republic of Chechnya on December 25, after which the plane crashed in Aktau, Kazakhstan.
• A Russian insider source, who is reportedly affiliated with Russian law enforcement, claimed that an air defense missile likely struck the plane at an altitude of 2,400 meters approximately 18 kilometers northwest of the Grozny airport over Naursky Raion.
• Japan will provide Ukraine with $3 billion in non-lethal assistance generated solely from the proceeds of frozen Russian assets.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Toretsk, and Russian forces recently advanced near Kupyansk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Velyka Novosilka.
• Russian milbloggers acknowledged that the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) is attempting to monopolize crowdfunding efforts for the Russian military amid ongoing fallout from the deaths of two Russian drone operators in September 2024.

Authors: Christina Harward, Nicole Wolkov, Grace Mappes, William Runkel, and George Barros.

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