Poll: 45% of Ukrainians Think Trump’s Win Could Accelerate War’s End

A recent poll said 45% of Ukrainians surveyed think US President-elect Donald Trump’s November victory could bring Ukraine closer to ending the war. 

The poll, carried out by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) between Dec 2 and Dec. 17, said 15% of the 45% “believe that peace is getting much closer,” with the remaining 30% thinking it is “getting only a little closer.”

In contrast, only 14% believe peace is more distant after Trump’s victory, with another 40% thinking “nothing will change or are undecided.”

As for whether Trump would bring about a just solution to end the war in Ukraine – a notion President Volodymyr Zelensky advocated repeatedly – Ukrainians are more divided, with 31% thinking the war would end in terms “mostly or completely unfair” to Ukraine under Trump, whereas 23% think it would be “mostly or completely fair for Ukraine.” 

Another 29% think there will be both guarantees and concessions for Ukraine and Russia, and the remaining 18% cannot decide. 

Anton Hrushetskyi, executive director of KIIS, described Ukrainian expectations as “cautious and expectant,” with a hint of optimism for a fresh change under Trump. 

Hrushetskyi also noted “a feeling of bitterness” among Ukrainians in the outgoing Biden administration, where some believe Washington could have done more even though they are thankful for the Western aid. 

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“Ukrainians are grateful for the assistance provided by the current USA administration and realize its importance. At the same time, a significant part of Ukrainians (if not the majority) is not left with a feeling of bitterness about the missed opportunities in previous periods due to excessive caution and the notorious ‘escalation management,’” Hrushetskyi said in the report. 

He added that “there is an acute feeling of untimely and insufficient sending of weapons” among Ukrainians. 

The poll surveyed 985 respondents aged 18 and above from Kyiv-controlled territories of Ukraine interviewed via telephone.

“Formally, under normal circumstances, the statistical error of such a sample (with a probability of 0.95 and taking into account the design effect of 1.3) did not exceed 4.1% for indicators close to 50%, 3.5% for indicators close to 25%, 2.5% for indicators close to 10%, 1.8% for indicators close to 5%,” the KIIS report states.