Marco Rubio on Ukraine – Friend or Foe?

Like US President-elect Donald Trump, Senator Marco Rubio – potentially the new secretary of state – also said he wants the war in Ukraine to end.

Early Tuesday, The New York Times citing three people “familiar with [Trump’s] thinking” reported that Rubio is on the president-elect’s shortlist for secretary of state, though they also said the decision is not final and can change last minute.

The future secretary of state will play a key advisory role to the president, and their thinking could help shape White House policy on areas of key geo-political importance, including the conflicts in Israel and Ukraine.

Rubio, a Florida native, has been known for his hawkish comments in the past – but when it comes to Ukraine, he has shown a tendency toward seeking a peace settlement even on terms unfavorable to Kyiv.

However, some of Trump’s supporters will be skeptical of his decision to tap Rubio, who until recently held muscular foreign policy positions that contradict those of Trump.

During Trump’s 2017-2021 term, for instance, Rubio co-sponsored legislation that would make it harder for Trump to withdraw from NATO by requiring two-thirds of the Senate to ratify withdrawal.

Rubio’s previous statement, actions on Ukraine

In a nutshell, Rubio said he supports Ukraine but the war has to end.

In a recent statement made on television, Rubio said US funding to Ukraine has been “funding a stalemate,” and that Ukraine “is going to be set back 100 years” should the war continue.

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“I think the Ukrainians have been incredibly brave and strong in standing up to Russia. But at the end of the day, what we are funding here is a stalemate war, and it needs to be brought to a conclusion, or that country is going to be set back 100 years,” Rubio said.

“I'm not on Russia’s side – but unfortunately, the reality of it is that the way the war in Ukraine is going to end is with a negotiated settlement,” Rubio also told NBC in September.

“I would be comfortable with a deal that ends these hostilities, and that I think is favorable to Ukraine, meaning that they have their own sovereignty, that they don’t become a satellite state or a puppet state that is constantly held hostage by the Russians. I’m not going to prejudge any agreement,” he added.

Rubio was also one of the Republicans who voted against the Ukraine aid bill earlier this year. He denounced Russia’s invasion in an hour-long speech in February before adding that the US should also focus on its domestic interests.

Judging by the statements alone, Rubio’s approach to Ukraine would likely be a land-for-peace deal – though it is possible that Rubio, with the new Trump administration, would help Ukraine gain leverage in the negotiations, be it security guarantees or even troop deployments, but it’s unlikely to continue funding Kyiv’s defense.

That said, only Kyiv and Moscow can decide whether to lay down arms – and thus far the liberation of Moscow-occupied territories remains Kyiv’s ultimate goal, and the rising support from Europe could still be enough for Kyiv to defend against the Russian invasion.

Will Kyiv back down from that goal and accept a deal offered by the Trump administration, whatever that may be? Only time will tell.