Ukraine Summer Offensive Update for July 11: ‘Bakhmut Trap Is Set’

Snapshot

Tide turning in Battle of Bakhmut 2.0; Ukraine throwing jabs south of Orikhiv in the western Zaporizhzhia region; Ukraine wins more land back in five weeks than Russia captured in six months.

Analysis

Data and assessments by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy and the global research institute International Institute for Strategic Studies gaps between the military inventory stocks between Russia and Ukraine are narrowing. James Hackett, Senior Fellow for Defense and Military Analysis at IISS, said:

Equipment inventories are changing. Russia failed to gain air superiority over Ukraine and relied mainly on stand-off attacks using its land-based cruise missiles, depleting its inventory.

Russia’s tank and artillery fleets have suffered significant attrition. Around 50 percent of its pre-war fleet of modern T-72B3s and T-72B3Ms is assessed to have been lost.

Moreover, the composition of Russia’s inventory has changed. As modern vehicles have been destroyed, Russia has looked to maintain its fleet by bringing older vehicles out of store.

The flow of Western artillery to Ukraine is modernizing Kyiv’s inventory and delivering improved capability.

Additionally, factors that play against Russia include industrial sustainability, logistics, maintenance, strategies and plans and training, areas in which Russia’s armed forces have in 2022 demonstrated significant deficiencies.

Other Topics of Interest

What if Russia Wins?

For fear of nuclear escalation, we have accelerated nuclear proliferation.

General Developments

Ukrainian military officials stated that Ukrainian troops continued offensive actions on the Bakhmut, Berdyansk (western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhzhia border region), and Melitopol (western Zaporizhzhia region) fronts, according to ISW.

Since the beginning of the Ukrainian counteroffensive on June 4, ISW reports that Ukrainian forces have recaptured approximately 253 square kilometers of territory. Russian forces have captured a total of 282 square kilometers in the entire theater since January 1. So, in five weeks, Ukrainian forces have liberated nearly the same amount of territory that Russian forces captured in over six months.

Russian forces launched 22 air strikes and about 30 attacks using multiple-launch rocket systems over the last 24 hours, according to the General Staff.

Turkey’s Baykar has started building a plant in Ukraine to produce Bayraktar drones, according to Ukraine’s Minister of Strategic Industries.

The former commander of a Russian fleet ship that launched Kalibr missiles against Ukrainian civilian targets was assassinated while jogging in Krasnodar, Russia. He was apparently geo-located by his Strava account.

During June, the Ukrainian Air Force averaged 15 strikes per day against enemy targets, which is substantially lower than those by Russian forces.

There were explosions and working Ukrainian air defense systems in Kyiv and Odesa regions overnight. Kyiv authorities reported all incoming Shaheds destroyed.

Operational Aspects in Bakhmut

Ukrainian officials stated on July 10 that Ukrainian forces have fire control over Bakhmut and Russian ground lines of communication (LOCs) around the city, according to ISW.

Ukraine’s senior infantry commander said Russian forces are “trapped” in Bakhmut, and that he was confident to take the city. For detailed information about the Battle for Bakhmut 2.0, click here for Kyiv Post’s in-depth look.

The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces have liberated four square kilometers of territory in the Bakhmut direction over the past week, and a total of 24 square kilometers since starting counteroffensive operations in the Bakhmut direction (likely around early June).

“Russian defenders are highly likely suffering from low morale, a mix of disparate units, and a limited ability to find and strike Ukrainian artillery,” UK Defense Intelligence noted.

Operational Aspects in Luhansk, Avdiivka, Maryinka, Kherson, and other areas

Russian and Ukrainian forces conducted ground attacks along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line in Luhansk region, ISW reported. Pro-Russian sources confirmed Ukrainian offensive assaults.

Russian forces conducted ground attacks along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line in central Donetsk region, ISW reported. Ukrainian milbloggers said there was a larger Ukrainian assault at Vesele. Pro-Russian sources confirmed Ukrainian offensive assaults.

Two people were killed and three injured due to Russian shelling of Avdiivka and Hostre in Donetsk region, the local Prosecutor’s Office reported.

Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted another missile strike on the Kerch Bridge in occupied Crimea. Russian sources reported that the Ukrainian Air Force made an attempt to once again destroy the bridge and cut off the Southern Russian Group located in Zaporizhzhia from supplies.

Pro-Russian sources said Ukrainian activity to secure a foothold near the Antonivsky Bridge across the Dnipro River in Kherson is “still festering.” ISW reported heavy Russian shelling there.

Operational Aspects on Boundary of Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk regions and in Western Zaporizhzhia

The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian troops advanced up to one kilometer in the Berdyansk (western Zaporizhzhia) and Melitopol directions (regional boundary area) and recaptured a total of 8.6 square kilometers since Ukrainian troops initiated offensive operations in these directions.

Ukrainian forces conducted offensive operations south and west of Orikhiv in western Zaporizhzhia on July 10, ISW said. Pro-Russian sources cited Ukrainian assaults or probes at Zherebyanky and Robotyne with unconfirmed reports of Ukrainian troops advancing 400 meters and now two kilometers south of Robotyne.

Pro-Russian sources said Ukrainian forces continued to assault around Pryyutne.

Seven people have been confirmed killed by a Russian airstrike on Orikhiv in western Zaporizhzhia region, following the completion of search and rescue operations. On July 9, Russian forces hit the city in with a guided aerial bomb while humanitarian aid was being distributed in a residential area.