Daily Briefing from Ukraine

·      Top 5 Headlines

·      President Zelensky’s Message of the Day

·      Ukraine Summer Offensive Summary

Top Headlines

1. President Volodymyr Zelensky on Monday asked Western allies for a “clear signal” about Ukraine’s NATO membership. “Ukraine deserves to be in the alliance. Not now, because now there’s war, but we need a clear signal and this signal is needed right now,” Zelensky said. While it appears agreed that Ukraine will not be required to do a Membership Action Plan, the specific wording about how Ukraine can progress toward membership in the final document of the summit has not been completed, according to Zelensky and his Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba.

2.  US President Joe Biden and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will meet tomorrow as part of the NATO Summit in Vilnius, according to Politico. Zelensky is also likely to have “sideline” meetings with European countries, Canada, and Japan during the summit. Meanwhile, different leaders continue different positioning about the final position on Ukraine’s NATO potential ascension. UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said Ukraine’s “rightful place” is in NATO and stressed the importance of its international partners committing to long-term defense. Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani said Ukraine will join NATO only after the end of the war with Moscow, according to La Repubblica. German newspaper Bild reported that the Scholz government “will not agree to any wording that would create the impression of a ‘fast track’ to the accession of Ukraine” and therefore Germany will not accept “either an invitation” nor “Ukraine's legitimate place in NATO” in the NATO final document.

Other Topics of Interest

What if Russia Wins?

For fear of nuclear escalation, we have accelerated nuclear proliferation.

3. Meanwhile, different leaders continue different positioning about the final position on Ukraine’s NATO potential ascension. UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said Ukraine’s “rightful place” is in NATO, and stressed the importance of its international partners committing to long-term defense. Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani said Ukraine will join NATO only after the end of the war with Moscow, according to La Repubblica. German newspaper Bild reported that the Scholz government "will not agree to any wording that would create the impression of a ‘fast track’ to the accession of Ukraine" and therefore Germany will not accept "neither an invitation" nor "Ukraine's legitimate place in NATO" in the NATO final document. 

4. Dmytro Kuleba, Ukraine’s Foreign Affairs Minister, urged Berlin not to block Ukraine’s fast accession to NATO. “I urge the German government not to repeat these mistakes made by Merkel in 2008 (when a NATO Summit opposed Ukraine’s membership).” Kuleba has said that there is now an overwhelming majority of NATO members who support Ukraine’s accession to NATO as soon as possible.

5.   Mondelez, Mars Inc. and PepsiCo Inc. had roaring sales in Russia last year. PepsiCo’s profits quadrupled; Mondelez more than doubled its profits; Mars booked a 58 percent increase in profits. According to Bloomberg, the US groups stayed in Russia as they are not sanctioned businesses and all three said they would only sell “essential” products. In PepsiCo’s case, that includes chips, soda, milk, dairy and baby food as well as local products like kvass. Companies that stayed in Russia may have benefited from rivals leaving the market.

President Zelensky’s Message

Ukraine Summer Offensive Summary

Snapshot

Tide turning in Battle of Bakhmut 2.0; Ukraine throwing jabs south of Orikhiv in western Zaporizhzhia region.

General Developments

Ukrainian military officials stated that Ukrainian troops continued offensive actions on the Bakhmut, Berdyansk (western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhzhia border region), and Melitopol (western Zaporizhzhia region) fronts, according to ISW.

Since the beginning of the Ukrainian counteroffensive on June 4, ISW reports that Ukrainian forces have recaptured approximately 253 square kilometers of territory. Russian forces have captured a total of 282 square kilometers in the entire theater since January 1. Hence, in five weeks, Ukrainian forces have liberated nearly the same amount of territory that Russian forces captured in over six months.

Russian forces launched 22 air strikes and about 30 attacks using multiple-launch rocket systems over the last 24 hours, according to the General Staff.

Turkey's Baykar has started building a plant in Ukraine to produce Bayraktar drones, according to Ukraine’s Minister of Strategic Industries.

The former commander of a Russian fleet ship that launched Kalibr missiles against Ukrainian civilian targets was assassinated while jogging in Krasnodar, Russia. He was apparently geo-located by his Strava account.

During June, the Ukrainian Air Force averaged 15 strikes per day against enemy targets, which is substantially lower than those by Russian forces.

There were explosions and working Ukrainian air defense systems in Kyiv and Odesa regions overnight. Kyiv authorities reported all incoming Shaheds destroyed.

Operational Aspects in Bakhmut

Ukrainian officials stated on July 10 that Ukrainian forces have fire control over Bakhmut and Russian ground lines of communication (LOCs) around the city, according to ISW.

Ukraine’s senior infantry commander said Russian forces are “trapped” in Bakhmut, and that he was confident to take the city. For detailed information about the Battle for Bakhmut 2.0, click here for Kyiv Post’s in-depth look.

The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces have liberated four square kilometers of territory in the Bakhmut direction over the past week, and a total of 24 square kilometers since starting counteroffensive operations in the Bakhmut direction (likely around early June).

“Russian defenders are highly likely suffering from low morale, a mix of disparate units, and a limited ability to find and strike Ukrainian artillery,” UK Defense Intelligence noted.

Operational Aspects in Luhansk, Avdiivka, Maryinka, Kherson, and other areas

Russian and Ukrainian forces conducted ground attacks along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line in Luhansk region, ISW reported. Pro-Russian sources confirmed Ukrainian offensive assaults.

Russian forces conducted ground attacks along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line in the central Donetsk region, ISW reported. Ukrainian milbloggers said there was a larger Ukrainian assault at Vesele. Pro-Russian sources confirmed Ukrainian offensive assaults.

Two people were killed and three injured due to Russian shelling of Avdiivka and Hostre in Donetsk region, the local Prosecutor’s Office reported.

Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted another missile strike on the Kerch Bridge in occupied Crimea. Russian sources reported that the Ukrainian Air Force made an attempt to once again destroy the bridge and cut off the Southern Russian Group located in Zaporizhzhia from supplies.

Pro-Russian sources said Ukrainian activity to secure a foothold near the Antonivsky Bridge across the Dnipro River in Kherson is “still festering.” ISW reported heavy Russian shelling there.

Operational Aspects on Boundary of the Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk regions and in Western Zaporizhzhia

The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian troops advanced up to one kilometer in the Berdyansk (western Zaporizhzhia) and Melitopol directions (regional boundary area) and recaptured a total of 8.6 square kilometers since Ukrainian troops initiated offensive operations in these directions.

Ukrainian forces conducted offensive operations south and west of Orikhiv in western Zaporizhzhia on July 10, ISW said. Pro-Russian sources cited Ukrainian assaults or probes at Zherebyanky and Robotyne with unconfirmed reports of Ukrainian troops advancing 400 meters and now two kilometers south of Robotyne.

Pro-Russian sources said Ukrainian forces continued to assault around Pryyutne.

Seven people have been confirmed killed by a Russian airstrike on Orikhiv in the western Zaporizhzhia region, following the completion of search and rescue operations. On July 9, Russian forces hit the city with a guided aerial bomb while humanitarian aid was being distributed in a residential area.