An alleged US intelligence assessment contained in a growing leak of classified documents reveals concerns about Ukraine's military capabilities and strategy in pushing back against Russian forces, casting doubt on the potential gains that can be achieved in ongoing Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the Washington Post has reported.
The purportedly leaked documents - which have not been verified - reportedly highlight challenges faced by the Ukrainian forces in terms of equipment, training, and coordination, which could hinder their ability to effectively counter the Russian military.
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The documents, whose authenticity has been publicly doubted by Ukrainian sources, also question Ukraine's support from its allies, including the United States and other Western countries, despite the provision of military aid and assistance.
The apparent leakage underscores the complexities and difficulties Ukraine faces in its efforts to counter the Russian military. They highlight the need for effective strategy, coordination, and support from allies to successfully push back against the ongoing aggression.
Both Ukrainian and U.S. officials have not confirmed the authenticity of the supposedly leaked documents, and the situation remains fluid with further developments awaited.
Thus Mykhailo Podolyak, adviser to the head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, said on his Telegram channel Friday, April 7, that the leaked documents are just another case of Russia “disseminating fictitious information" and they have “nothing to do with Ukraine’s real counteroffensive plans.”
ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December, 17, 2024
However, analysts have expressed concerns that the purported leak could undermine confidence in Ukraine's ability to resist Russian aggression and may have diplomatic and strategic implications for the ongoing conflict.
As the situation evolves, the 'leaked documents' have raised questions about the prospects of Ukraine's counteroffensive against Russia.
At the same time, Oleh Izhak, the senior analyst at the National Institute of Strategic Research in Kyiv, said that although it’s not possible to be positive, what could be a leak of secret US military briefing slides was a desire by “someone” either in Washington or Kyiv to make Russian military decision-making more difficult by “leaking” information the Kremlin is already aware of, and forcing Putin – a former secret agent with a secret agent’s paranoia about planted information – to question its validity.
“I think mostly it is an attempt to affect decision-making in Russia… I am not excluding the possibility that this is some kind of attempt at a strategic trick, by publishing information that really is already out there… It’s kind of like these constant conversations about Putin’s health,” Izhak said in an April 9 YouTube interview.
On Friday, April 7, alleged classified military documents detailing US and NATO plans on building up the armed forces of Ukraine before the planned counteroffensive at the front appeared on Twitter and Telegram.
Both the Pentagon, where much of the allegedly leaked materials apparently originated earlier this year, and the Justice Department are investigating the matter.
According to major media outlets, the circulated documents marked “top secret” date back to March 1, 2023, and, in particular, contain information about the schedules of arms supplies, the number of troops, and ammunition costs. At the same time, they do not provide specific combat plans on how, when, and where Ukraine intends to launch a counteroffensive.
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