‘We Are Not Going to Just Surrender and Give Up Our Independence’ – Ukraine at War Update for Dec. 18

While the supply of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) strengthens Ukraine’s battlefield capabilities, recent reports indicate that FPV drones are less effective than expected. On the international stage, Ukraine’s efforts to secure continued support from allies remain crucial, as concerns about potential shifts in US policy under the upcoming Trump administration deepen.

Ukraine boosts UAV production, but FPV drone effectiveness remains limited 

Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense (MOD) has transferred over 1.3 million UAVs to the Armed Forces (AFU) since the beginning of the year, according to the MOD. The supply of drones to the front significantly increased throughout 2024, and millions more are on their way, the ministry said.

The production will ensure a systematic supply of UAVs and strengthen the capabilities of the Ukrainian Army on the battlefield, according to officials. 

Ukraine’s Defense Minister Rustem Umerov confirmed last week that the number of UAV operators in the Armed Forces has increased substantially over the past year. “Thanks to systematic work, the number of UAV crews in the military has increased sevenfold over the past year. This demonstrates the significant and rapid growth of the role of drones in modern warfare.

Other Topics of Interest

Zelensky Announces More Money to House Those Displaced by War

Nearly two million families have lost their homes in Russia’s war

“Providing the brigades with drones is our priority, and the Ministry of Defense team is making every effort to ensure that these supplies remain uninterrupted,” the minister said. 

President Volodymyr Zelensky and MOD officials have repeatedly stated that amping up the supply of Ukrainian-made military drones is one of the main priorities of military leaders today. “We haven’t specified how many drones we can produce. But it’s several million... Some of this is funded by the state budget, and we find some money from our partners... For next year, we won’t let the enemy surpass us, so we will produce several times more,” Umerov said in October.

First-person view (FPV) drones are also being produced en masse. However, recent reports demonstrate that they may not be the most effective on the front. The use of FPV drones by both Ukrainian and Russian forces is marked by relatively low efficiency—with effectiveness ranging between 20% and 40%, according to Robert Brovdi, commander of the separate regiment of strike unmanned aerial systems Madiar’s Birds.

Brovdi, who goes by Madiar, shared his insights during an interview with Ukrinform: 

“Electronics may fail, and the drone won’t explode; it can detonate en route; a significant percentage is suppressed by various electronic warfare systems, and some are shot down with small arms. The efficiency of FPV drones in the Ukrainian Armed Forces and among Russians is 20 to 40%.” 

Brovdi clarified that this figure specifically refers to instances when a drone successfully reaches its target, delivers the strike, and the impact is duly recorded. The regiment tracks these statistics through their methodology, which enables them to assess drone performance with precision.

“We have our own accounting system at the unit level without any [requirement] from the command. We do this for ourselves. I can review any month, analyze the crew’s efficiency, quantitative and qualitative performance, and the types of targets – whether they are moving or stationary,” Brovdi said.

The push to increase domestic production is only a partial solution to Ukraine’s weapons woes – allies hold the keys to further success.

US military aid to Ukraine secured for 2025, Zelensky speaks hopefully about Trump

US officials have assured that the military aid promised by President Joe Biden will meet Ukraine’s needs for weapons, equipment, and materials through the end of 2025. Speaking at a press briefing on Tuesday, US State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said:

“The resources that we have already provided them, and that we have still on track to provide them before the end of the administration, will give them the equipment, the material they need to fight through the end of 2025.”

While Miller refrained from specifying the remaining amounts from the large-scale military aid package, he confirmed that the Biden administration is committed to ensuring Ukraine receives necessary support before the next presidential transition on Jan. 20, 2025, according to Ukriniform.

The guarantees come as Zelensky continues to work on shoring up support from American allies as the incoming administration of President-elect Donald Trump looms closer. His team has taken the approach of trying to convince Trump of the value of continuing to help Ukraine both due to the country’s rich natural resources and the possibility of the US looking weak if Russia is portrayed as the outright victor.

“The country has long been fighting for its sovereignty. No matter how many presidents or prime ministers want to declare an end to the war, we are not going to just surrender and give up our independence,” Zelensky said in a recent conversation with Le Parisien. “The danger would be to say: We will freeze the war and come to an agreement with the Russians.”

Zelensky also pointed out that Trump, who is not currently in office, lacks access to critical intelligence, suggesting that future negotiations could be influenced by the information Trump receives once in power. “At the moment, he is not in the White House and he cannot have access to all the information: from intelligence, the Department of Defense, certain diplomatic channels, and so on. Once he is there, we will be able to speak the same language, with the same amount of information,” he said.

With the US being Ukraine’s largest donor, the stakes for continued support are high as Kyiv looks to safeguard its sovereignty. “We would like to see stronger support for Ukraine from the US. Our teams are already working with President Trump’s teams. We will be building relations with the new administration, this will be our priority,” Zelensky said. 

“The United States has been and remains our leading donor in this war, although for Ukraine, I’d like to emphasize, both Europe and the United States are important. We do not put anyone above others,” he added.

‘Several hundred’ North Korean casualties in Kursk – US official

North Korean forces have endured “several hundred” casualties while fighting alongside Russian troops in the Kursk region, a senior US military official revealed on Tuesday. Pyongyang has sent thousands of soldiers to support Russia’s war efforts in Ukraine, with recent reports revealing that North Korean troops have been confronted in multiple zones with devastating consequences for the DPRK forces. 

The US official, speaking on the condition of anonymity, stated that “several hundred casualties is our latest estimate that the DPRK has suffered.” These casualties, the official added, range from light injuries to killed-in-action (KIA) and include soldiers of “all ranks.”

“These are not battle-hardened troops. They haven’t been in combat before,” the official explained, suggesting that the lack of experience in warfare could be a major factor behind the high casualty rate.

This insight aligns with reports from Ukraine’s top commander, Oleksandr Syrsky, who said Russia had employed North Korean troops in the thick of an “intensive offensive” in the Kursk region over several days.

Since Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, North Korea and Russia have significantly strengthened their military cooperation. A defense pact signed between the two countries in June went into effect earlier this month, further solidifying ties. Experts speculate that North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong Un, seeks advanced military technology and valuable combat experience for his forces through this partnership. 

However, the arrangement may not be going according to Pyongyang’s plan.

Ukraine’s Special Operations Forces (SSO) shared a video on Tuesday claiming that its drone operators successfully took out nearly 100 North Korean soldiers, including 50 killed, in the Kursk region of Russia. The SSO said that in just three days, dozens of DPRK soldiers were killed and several more wounded in attacks that also destroyed two pieces of armored equipment, two vehicles, and one Russian all-terrain vehicle (ATV).

The video reportedly shows Ukrainian kamikaze drones targeting apparent DPRK soldiers, followed by a series of explosions that suggest casualties among North Korean forces. Kyiv Post could not independently verify the subjects, time, or location of the footage, which was shared on Telegram by the SSO.

“Soldiers of the 8th Regiment of the Special Operations Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine organized a warm welcome for North Korean troops in the Kursk region,” reads the caption accompanying the clip. “Fighting continues,” the report stated.

Kyrylo Budanov, head of Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence Directorate (HUR), told The War Zone on Dec. 16 that North Korean troops began launching large-scale assault operations against Ukrainian forces in Russia’s Kursk region last week. 

Although around 12,000 DPRK soldiers had been stationed in Kursk for months, assisting Russian efforts to repel the Ukrainian advance, they only recently began intensifying their attacks. According to Budanov, more than 200 North Koreans have been killed in these operations so far.