OPINION: Being Upfront About Ukraine’s War Casualties Is Important

According to The Economist, citing data from Western intelligence agencies, defense officials, open sources and the UALosses website, the news outlet reports that Ukraine may have lost 60,000 – 100,000 soldiers killed and 400,000 soldiers wounded.

President Zelenskyy has refuted the numbers. “Recently, some in, I believe, the American press reported that 80,000 Ukrainians had been killed. I want to tell you that, no, (the number of those killed is) less, much less,” Zelensky said while refusing to provide a detailed number of casualties.

Getting the data right is crucially important. Elevated numbers affect not only Ukrainian resilience and resolve but also international support, crisis management, and strategy for ending the war. They also impact Ukraine’s mobilization and recruitment process.

While I cannot present better data, I can explain my strong reservations about the level of Ukrainian casualties reported by The Economist.

Battlefield reports

The Ukrainian reports on Russian casualties – which are largely supported by the US, the UK, France and, ironically, Russia – set the Russian casualties to about 750,000 killed and wounded.

“According to an analysis by Verstka of Russian Pension and Social Insurance Fund data from 24 March 2024, there has been a record growth between 2022 and 2023 in the number of Russian men aged 31-59 years with disabilities,” UK Defence Intelligence reports. “In 2022, there were officially 1.67 million men aged 31-59 with disabilities. This figure increased by 507,000 or 30% in 2023. Russian demographers have told Verstka that the increase in the number of men with disabilities was most likely due to the growth in military [disabled].” An increase of more than half a million disabilities only in 2023 is indicative of an enormous attrition rate and suggests that the Ukrainian reports might be conservative.

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The Economist indicates that the Ukrainian casualties are “only” 33% less than those of Russia. This, however, does not match past and persistent reporting from the battlefield.

In the battle for Bakhmut in 2023, the ratio was 1 to 5 in favor of Ukraine. During the fight for the city of Soledar, Russia the ratio was 1 to 8. In 2024, during the battle of Avdiivka, the ratio was between 1 to 7 and 1 to 10. In June, the ratio of irreversible losses was believed to be 1 to 6.

Past reports imply that Russian casualties are several times higher than those of Ukraine. The attrition rate is a consequence of several factors.

Russia has been on the offensive for the greater part of the war. Except for its liberation of Kharkiv and Kherson oblast (Aug–Sep 2022), the so-called counteroffensive (June–September 2023) and not least, the Kursk offensive (6 Aug 2024–ongoing), Ukraine has defended itself from mostly prepared and fortified positions. While its very successful counterattacks in Kharkiv, Kherson and Kursk were conducted against a fully unprepared Russian frontline, the latter has been battling well-prepared and fortified Ukrainian positions for more than 1,000 days.

Ukraine’s many tactical counterattacks do not define the crucial difference between the victim and the aggressor.

Russia has been forced to conduct costly assaults over open terrain suffering tremendous losses. Ukraine’s active defense strategy involves bleeding the Russian forces until they lose momentum and collapse or destabilize the Russian Federation. Its present losses are not sustainable.

Russian tactics and lack of regard for human lives. Determined to capture as much territory as possible as fast as possible, the Russian Armed forces are throwing untrained troops against Ukrainian positions in badly led assaults. Since the very start of the full-scale war, Russian land forces have been conducting wave after wave of so-called “meat assaults” against fortified Ukrainian positions without any regard for the lives of its soldiers.

In the words of Military analyst Denys Popovych, “Russia’s actions […] can be compared to a large number of cockroaches that we’re trying to kill. Some we’ve managed to kill, while others have managed to hide, and the next day we’re facing a thousand of these cockroaches, and the day after that—two thousand. That’s how the Russians are operating right now.”

Their lack of training, support, supply and, consequently, motivation have been well documented. As has Russia’s use of barrier troops to kill retreating soldiers. Russian barrier troops made a comeback in late 2022 as Russian casualties in Ukraine exceeded 100,000. They are afraid of death both “in front and behind“ a soldier explained. This might explain why a Russian deputy defence minister yesterday stated that “at least 48,000 Russians have gone missing in action in the war against Ukraine.”

According to the Estonian analyst Artur Rehi, newly recruited Russian soldiers have presently a one-month life expectancy after signing their contract.

Statistics based on Ukrainian reports, clearly show Russian horrendous losses of manpower. It has been increasing nearly persistently since Russia regained the theatre-wide initiative in October 2023.

According to UK Defence Intelligence, the average daily Russian killed and wounded was 1,523 in November. Last month was the costliest until now for Russia with a total of 45,680 casualties reported by the Ukraine General Staff. If the present trend continues, Russian casualties in December might pass 50,000.

In contrast, Ukraine follows Western values and standards and prioritizes saving the lives of its soldiers before holding territory. Its training standards are being constantly improved (while acknowledging that it lacks the time and opportunity to train them according to peacetime standards). More than 100,000 Ukrainian soldiers have even been trained abroad by partner countries.

Their fundamentally dissimilar views on the value and dignity of human lives indicate that Russian casualties by default are far higher than those of Ukraine.

Russian medical support and evacuation are generally poor. Wounded soldiers are often left to die on the battlefield. Those who manage to return are sometimes forced to re-engage before being fully recovered. “Some critically injured Russian soldiers who could have been saved are dying on the battlefield without ever receiving medical attention, according to a new investigation by the independent outlet Verstka. Even Defense Ministry doctors admit that the army’s medical care is poorly organized, with “potentially saveable” soldiers not evacuated in time and others sent back to the front lines even when their treatment is unsuccessful,” Meduza reports.

According to UK intelligence, logistical constraints, such as a lack of armoured vehicles and the threat of drones, are causing significant delays in evacuating injured personnel. “These delays almost certainly increase the likelihood of more severe injuries and higher mortality rates among those eventually evacuated through the medical system,” the report stated.

This stands in grim contrast to Ukrainian medical support. While by no means perfect, more than 75% of wounded Ukrainian soldiers reportedly return to service after rehabilitation.

The ambiguity in numbers. The Economist indicates great ambiguity concerning the number of killed Ukrainian soldiers (60-100,000). They have no such reservations when indicating the number wounded. Applying the same percentage, the wounded would be between 240-400,000.

Given the abovementioned factors, Ukrainian casualties are more likely to stand at around 300,000 killed and wounded. If that is closer to the truth, the number of casualties is still horrendously high but still far better than Russia.

From a secret to a need to know?

Ukrainian actual casualties have until now been a closely guarded secret. While extremely understandable from an operational security perspective, it has nevertheless forced its international partners, media, academia and not least, the public to speculate, potentially strengthening Russia’s war in the cognitive space.

Nearly eleven years into the war – and almost three years of full-scale war – presenting the real casualty numbers could serve Ukraine’s national interests. It will help clarify an already dire security situation. It might increase international support, as well as strengthen national recruitment, resilience and resolve. If the Ukrainian casualties are less than The Economist claims, it is in Ukraine’s interests to divulge the real figures. It is after all, easier to support success than failure.

Supporting Ukraine until victory means defeating Russia in Ukraine. Up-to-date casualty numbers might help sway its partners from reluctance to resolve.

The views expressed in this opinion article are the author’s and not necessarily those of Kyiv Post.

Hans Petter Midttun, independent analyst on hybrid warfare, Non-Resident Fellow at the Centre for Defense Strategies, board member of the Ukrainian Institute for Security and Law of the Sea, former Defense Attaché of Norway to Ukraine, and officer (R) of the Norwegian Armed Forces.