In a bit of a surprise, the Samopomich (self-reliance) party will get 8.5 percent. It is led by Lviv Mayor Andriy Sadovy who is 50th on the list and filled with political newcomers. Some 7.5 percent of respondents said they will vote for Batkivshchyna party led by Yulia Tymoshenko. Meanwhile, the rating of the Opposition Bloc – which is well-stocked with members of the former ruling Party of Regions – has shot up to nearly 6 percent from 1.5 percent only a month ago.
Also passing the 5 percent threshold is Strong Ukraine with 5.6 percent support. It is led by Sergiy Tigipko, a former Party of Regions member and social minister under ex-President Viktor Yanukovych.
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The Communists are at risk of not making it to parliament with only 4.1 percent, while former Defense Minister Anatoliy Hrytsenko’s Civic Position party is getting 4.8 percent. Given the survey’s 2.2-percent sample error, they may get elected.
There are 32 percent of undecided voters, according to the poll.
Half of the legislature’s 450 seats will be allocated to parties based on a proportionate system. The other half will be elected in single-mandate, first past-the-post election districts.
The poll results were announced Oct. 22 by sociologist Iryna Bekeshkina, who heads the Democratic Initiatives Foundation, a think tank that is mostly funded by Western donors.
Based on the party lists, Nataliya Lynnyk, deputy head of the Committee of Voters of Ukraine, predicts 109 members of parliament will be businesspeople, at least 15 military, and 38 journalists and civic activists.
But it won’t be dominated by new faces.
Around 312 sitting lawmakers of all the political forces are now competing in the race, including as many as 35 lawmakers who voted for the Jan. 16 “dictator laws” to restrict free speech and free assembly, according to the Committee of Voters.
In war-torn Donbas, 13 out of 21 election districts will be operational in Donetsk Oblast while 5 out of 11 districts will be voting in Luhansk, according to Olga Aivazovska of OPORA election watchdog.
The election campaign thus far has been marked with a number of violations, with OPORA counting more than 527 violations, including at least 80 cases of alleged voter bribery.
Earlier Anton Herashchenko, an adviser to the interior minister, said 178 criminal cases on electoral violations have been opened, including 71 cases involving allegations of voter bribery. On Election Day, Ukraine’s Interior Ministry says it will cooperate with OPORA watchdog to track the violations.
Kyiv Post staff writer Olena Goncharova can be reached at goncharova@kyivpost.com
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