ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 23, 2024

Key Takeaways from ISW:

• Russian forces are gradually advancing south and southwest of Pokrovsk, but it remains unclear if Russian forces will be able to exploit these gains to envelop the town or if they intend to advance to the administrative boundary of Donetsk Oblast.
• It remains unclear which effort the Russian military command will prioritize, as Russian President Vladimir Putin may have tasked the Russian military with securing territorial gains rather than seizing significant settlements.
• The Russian military command appears to have split responsibility for the Pokrovsk direction between the Central Military District’s 2nd and 41st combined arms armies (CAAs), and ISW has yet to observe significant Russian activity in the 41st CAA’s area of responsibility (AoR).
• Decreased combat effectiveness among Russian forces may be slowing the rate of Russian advance in the Pokrovsk direction.
• Increased Russian armored vehicle losses over the last year, particularly among Russian units and formations that have been engaged in frontline combat for most of 2024, may be impacting Russia’s rate of advance in certain sectors of the frontline.
• North Korea is reportedly planning to deploy more troops and weapons to Russia amid reports that over 3,000 North Korean troops have been killed and wounded in Kursk Oblast.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin used his meeting with Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico to advance Russia’s campaign to undermine Western unity in supporting Ukraine.
• The Kremlin may be setting information conditions for a false flag in the pro-Russian breakaway region of Transnistria likely in a continued attempt to destabilize Moldova and hinder its integration into European Union (EU).
• Russian forces have reportedly withdrawn completely from most of their positions in Syria, including their base at Qamishli in northern Syria. (NOTE: A version of this text also appears in ISW-CTP’s December 23 Iran Update.)
• Russian forces recently advanced near Kupyansk, Toretsk, Vuhledar, Velyka Novosilka, and in Kursk Oblast.
• The Kremlin’s “Time of Heroes” program, which aims to appoint Russian veterans into government positions, is already causing conflict between veterans and corrupt regional officials.

Authors: Christina Harward, Nicole Wolkov, Grace Mappes, William Runkel, and George Barros.

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