With the possibility of negotiations and a freeze in the war come spring 2025 – currently being considered by figures aligned to US President-Elect Donald Trump and hinted at by Ukrainian government representatives – election planning in Ukraine is gaining momentum.
Various politicians, both former and current, are reminding the public of their presence and increasing their media activity.
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Meanwhile, well-known volunteers, military personnel and veterans are increasing their media presence. Many experts consider such individuals to be viable candidates for local or national elections, especially against the backdrop of the military’s popularity among Ukrainians and expectations of the emergence of a political party made up of military personnel and veterans.
However, the reality of elections still looks some way off. Even in the event of a ceasefire (which still looks highly unlikely), there are many unresolved issues that could impact the electoral field.
Kyiv Post has examined the challenges of holding elections, opposition tactics, and the possible strategy of President Volodymyr Zelensky’s “Servant of the People” party, which has seen a wane in its popularity.
So when might elections take place, how likely is the emergence of a new military party, and what are its chances of success?
Current challenges and the question of ‘when’
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According to the Constitution and the standard five-year cycle (parliamentary and presidential), elections in Ukraine would normally have taken place in 2024. But these are not normal times. War in Ukraine, in particular provisions associated with martial law, have meant a postponement of elections. There are other factors affecting the decision to postpone, not least significant population displacement, security concerns (including missile strikes), and the challenges associated with voting in temporarily occupied territories.
However, experts interviewed by Kyiv Post are confident that as soon as the war ends or a temporary ceasefire is in place, democratic Western nations, including Ukraine’s partners, will insist on elections.
It is clear, therefore, that elections require an end to, or so-called “freezing” of the war, but there are no signs of this at present. After all, peace depends not so much on the US president or on Zelensky, but on the aggressor who started the war.
Despite formal statements from Russian leader Vladimir Putin about “readiness for negotiations,” Russia shows no willingness to compromise, continuing to torture Ukrainian prisoners, carrying out missile strikes on civilians and infrastructure, and showing no signs of reducing the intensity of its current military operations. Moreover, Russia’s “readiness for negotiations” is only on its own terms, which are unacceptable to Ukraine and have been repeatedly rejected by Zelensky.
Furthermore, according to Ukrainian officials and analysts, Russia is unlikely to be interested in any cessation of hostilities while it has an advantage on the battlefield and hence sees no immediate benefit for itself.
According to one Ukrainian diplomat interviewed by Kyiv Post: “It is unclear who thinks that Russia will agree to any peace and why, because even peace on [Russia’s] terms brings it nothing. The international community does not recognize the occupied territories as Russian, and whether sanctions will be lifted, even partially, is also in question. Meanwhile, the economic consequences and social problems after the war will only worsen for Russia. The war has become part of the Putin regime, and there are no signs that it wants to stop.”
As such, the possibility of peace in spring following Trump’s inauguration is considered highly unlikely by Kyiv Post sources.
Even if a hypothetical ceasefire were to be achieved, elections in the short term are an unlikely prospect. Political scientist and member of the Public Council in Ukraine’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Volodymyr Fesenko, views the idea of spring elections as “nonsense.”
“Elections need to be carefully prepared to truly reflect people’s views and to avoid abuses. We have serious consequences from the war – millions of people have been displaced within the country, many have not changed their registration, many have gone abroad, and many have died. We do not know where and how many people we have.”
Describing what will likely need to happen, Fesenko adds: “The voter registry needs to be put in order, and the place of residence of each person needs to be carefully verified. This is important because local elections are supposed to take place in the fall of 2025. And all this work needs to begin now, and even if it starts now, it will take a long time. Therefore, if there is a ceasefire in the spring, it is unlikely that elections will take place before the fall.”
According to government estimates, more than seven million people (nearly 20% of Ukraine’s population) are currently abroad and the government has not developed a strategy for how such citizens might be able to vote.
“Diplomatic institutions, where representatives of the diaspora usually vote, will not be able to accommodate more than 100,000 people, and electronic voting has not been approved by the opposition and most civil society organizations because there are risks of abuse,” says a Kyiv Post source.
Fesenko adds that there is a third option – postal voting – but this needs to be tested for a long time, and it is unclear how representative and convenient it might be.
Why taking time to prepare for elections is important
Getting it wrong, for example, elections appearing potentially unrepresentative or otherwise unsatisfactory to the population, could lead to political instability, internal turbulence and a weakening of the state. Such a situation could lead to Russia being motivated to continue its aggression, sociologist Maria Zolkina said.
“The absence of proper support at this moment – total chaos inside, social divisions and the disorganization of exhausted mobilized people – these are the ideal conditions for destroying statehood using military and other methods,” said Zolkina.
Western allies should therefore not pressure the Ukrainian government to hold elections too early, she said.
However, not holding elections following a ceasefire is also risky, as Ukrainian society, according to political technologist Oleg Posternak, will not want to wait too long without a reboot of the political machinery.
“It is enough to say that, a year ago, the absolute majority of Ukrainians rejected elections altogether, but now up to 30% of the population supports elections,” says Posternak.
Everyone is preparing
Despite the elusive prospects of peace and elections, the Ukrainian political scene has sharply revived against the backdrop of Trump’s victory in November’s US elections and the intensification of talks about a possible peace.
A bill on the accessibility of medicine for the population has been registered by Yulia Tymoshenko, former prime minister of Ukraine and leader of the “Batkivshchyna” party. Tymoshenko has also started actively undertaking visits to the regions.
Meanwhile, Yuriy Boyko, former minister of fuel and energy under Viktor Yanukovych and one of the leaders of the pro-Russian “Opposition Platform – For Life and Peace” party, has also reappeared, focusing on the protection of Russian and Soviet monuments and provoking a wave of dissatisfaction.
Additionally, certain media-famous military personnel and veterans, whom political technologists consider viable potential candidates for elections, have become more active in response to Ukrainian society’s overall trust in the military.
“Currently, no one is looking at a clear electoral playing field. In fact, politicians are building their reputations right now, showing that they exist in order to make their mark on future voters and their positions. Current movements in the media space are an attempt to make an impression in the electoral memory,” says Posternak.
At the same time, analyst and political scientist Vitaliy Kulyk says that preparations are already underway within headquarters.
“There is information about the audit of local branches of the ‘Servant of the People,’ party, and a number of parties have moved on to searching for technologists for the upcoming elections. Even writers are being recruited, who are supposed to start working in mid-January. In addition, certain ‘clubs’ are gaining activity, which could be the foundation for future parties. For example, the ‘Republicans,’ ‘Forum of Conservative Politics,’ ‘7 Steps to Victory,’ etc.,” says Kulyk.
So, what might Ukraine’s future election landscape look like?
- The current ruling party
Prospects for the “Servant of the People” party seem elusive, as it has not forged a stable political force and has not produced many independent and charismatic politicians. Additionally, sources from Kyiv Post say that Zelensky himself has grown cold toward the party.
“However, with some rebranding, which is one of the strategies, the ruling force will always gain its 10 percent or more in the elections,” asserts Posternak.
- A possible new presidential bloc
Both Posternak and other interviewed experts agree that the government is more interested in another option – creating a new presidential bloc, which would likely include well-known public figures and military personnel.
“If this party is mostly made up of military personnel, and if it is structured as a civil wave, it has every chance of gaining 25 percent in parliamentary elections. And the key point here is that it will not formally be tied to the ‘green’ brand,” says Posternak.
Kulyk suggests that the second option involves creating a completely new political force without using current government representatives who have seen their trust ratings weaken.
However, the emergence of a party of military personnel and veterans, who enjoy significant public trust, raises two questions? Will the military form their own party independently of the government? And will General Valerii Zaluzhny, whose presidential approval rating is currently the highest in the country, participate directly in elections?
- 3. The military factor
As noted above, Ukraine’s military enjoys an exceptionally high level of trust, despite a certain paradox – an increasing reluctance among citizens in the rear to join the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU), leading to difficulties with mobilization.
However, according to experts, it will be difficult for the military to organize their own party.
“This is a popular myth on social media. Undoubtedly, there are two military figures who are widely known – Zaluzhny and Chief of the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Kyrylo Budanov. Less well known are Andriy Biletsky and Denys Prokopenko (commanders of the 3rd Special Purpose Brigade and Azov, respectively). Others are known only by a narrow segment of social media, mostly those who watch YouTube.
So, what does this mean?
Zaluzhny doesn’t have a party, but he can independently run for president. However, according to Fesenko, neither Zaluzhny nor Budanov have publicly stated their intention to participate in the elections.
All interviewed experts believe that less well-known but authoritative military figures and volunteers could unite into one party with a chance to surpass the 5 percent barrier.
According to sources, the military factor is currently difficult to analyze, and after the war, when issues of security and the existential preservation of the state take a back seat, it may change, though only slightly.
“Moreover, the authorities are gradually suppressing this public activity regarding the military, particularly through the actions of the Territorial Defense Forces (TDF), and scandals like the one with the 221st Brigade are negatively affecting this. So perhaps the rating will decrease slightly, but not significantly, because everyone understands that the Armed Forces are the true backbone of statehood, without which it would no longer exist. And everyone realizes this,” says Posternak.
Overall, everyone is certain that even existing parties will use the military factor in their messaging. The ranks of the Armed Forces include activists and local deputies from all political factions, and all parties will have military personnel on their lists, including deserving military personnel. Even in the pro-Russian Opposition Platform – For Life (OPZZH), there are many local deputies who are fighting, and not in headquarters, but directly on the front lines.
However, the devil is likely to be in the detail, and everything could change. Volodymyr Paniotto, president of the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology, shared his view on General Zaluzhny’s high rating (currently 42 percent, compared to 22 percent for incumbent President Zelensky, according to the Social Monitoring Center):
“As soon as [Zaluzhny] announces his intention to run, there will be compromising information and uncomfortable questions... Moreover, right now, voters don’t know his opinions on many issues, so we imagine that his opinions align with ours. But, during the election campaign, part of the electorate will definitely find something they don’t like. Furthermore, if other military personnel run alongside Zaluzhny, they could ‘bite off’ part of his rating,” Paniotto believes.
Elections at a local level
According to Fesenko, local elections could take place simultaneously with the presidential and parliamentary ones, firstly to save costs, and secondly, for security reasons.
Kyiv Post sources say that in many large cities, political parties are already forming headquarters in preparation for local elections.
“We have the ‘Batkivshchyna’ headquarters, which has actively started working, and the ‘Servant of the People’ headquarters, which have never stopped working. Representatives of no-name parties are coming to me, wanting to register local branches and organize their documents, so there is a ‘warming-up’ of activity,” says one of the local operatives in Chernihiv – a northern city 50 kilometers from the Russian border that withstood a Russian siege in the spring of 2022.
In Ukraine’s southern port city of Odesa, preparations for local elections are also gaining ground, primarily among local parties.
“Our ‘Trust the Deeds’ (the party of Odesa Mayor Hennadiy Trukhanov) has already held meetings. They have replaced their leaders (regional and city). And OPZZH is already actively working in the districts,” says one of the party officials from a political force in the city.
Conclusions
Current election activity in Ukraine can be summed up as a “warming-up” phase. Prospective participants have decided that – despite current prospects being uncertain – it is better to take action now and begin preparations, so that in the event of peace and elections being called, they will not fall behind others.
However, relatively high levels of trust in the military could lead to a serious reboot of power, especially at the local level.
Western partners would seem well placed therefore not to pressure Ukraine about holding elections, since it will take time to restructure the electoral system for post-war realities, create new parties, and allow emerging candidates to show themselves and compete for voter trust in a way that makes the electorate calm and confident in their choice.
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