Despite Kremlin Denials Satellite Images Suggest Russia Might Pull Out of Syria

Moscow says it is still seeking to negotiate a deal to keep its hands on the Khmeimim Air Base and Tartus naval base with the new powers in Syria. However, new satellite images produced by Maxar Technologies over last weekend seem to show large numbers of Russian vehicles and other materiel lined up at the bases, which are both located south of Latakia on Syria’s Mediterranean coast, as if preparing for embarkation.

Also seen on and around the Khmeimim apron is an Ilyushin Il-76 (NATO: Candid) multi-purpose, four-engine strategic airlifter, an Antonov An-124 (NATO: Condor) four-engine heavy transport aircraft, along with two Antonov An-26 (NATO: Curl) twin-turboprop transport aircraft and an Antonov An-72 (NATO: Coaler) jet-powered Soviet-era transport aircraft.

Similarly, the Maxar imagery of the Tartus also shows dozens of vehicles and other equipment lined up at the end of one of the piers, which could also indicate preparations to withdraw those forces.

The BBC cites sources who say that transport aircraft have been seen arriving and departing the country in recent days along with reports on social media of large columns of Russian military vehicles which was geolocated to show them moving north towards the Kremlin’s last two remaining bases.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has suggested that the combination of the images and other reports indicates these may be done as a defensive measure or preparations for at least a reduction in the size of Russia’s in-country forces or even a complete withdrawal.

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Adding to the argument that Russian force may be readying itself for withdrawal is the fact that a Dec. 15 satellite image shows the dismantling of the S-400 surface-to-air missile system along with the removal of other air defense assets.

Elsewhere in the air base, images posted on “X” show four more Il-76s and a Yakovlev Yak-40 (NATO: Codling) regional jet airliner some of which are thought to belong to Syrian Airlines. Also visible in other areas are several helicopters, some of which appear to be missing their rotor blades, which could be another sign that they are being broken down to be loaded into transport aircraft.

The fall of Assad dealt a significant blow to Russia with Khmeimim and Tartus being the focus of its military and political strategy in the Middle East, eastern Mediterranean and parts of Africa.

The damage to Moscow’s position has been played down by Moscow with Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov saying last week that although Russia had worked at stabilizing Syria in the past, its priorities now lie with the war in Ukraine.

He said that Moscow was in discussions with the new Syrian leadership to regularize issues relating to its military presence and the security of Russian forces and diplomats in the country.