Q&A with Ihor Semivolos: How Assad’s Fall Could Benefit Ukraine

The victory of opposition forces over Assad's regime is a significant defeat for Russia – a fact their propaganda can scarcely hide.

Russia expended hundreds of military lives, billions of dollars, and other substantial resources to prop up Assad between 2015 and 2017. Syria has long been used as a Launchpad for Russian military operations in the Middle East and Africa.

At the same time, many Syrians sympathized with Ukrainians, who similarly suffered from Russian aggression. Iran's ayatollahs have accused Ukraine of aiding Assad's opponents.

What does the imminent fall of the Syrian dictatorship mean for Ukraine? What might Ukraine gain, and what has Russia lost?

In an interview with Ihor Semivolos, director of Kyiv’s Center for Middle Eastern Studies, we examine Syrian-Ukrainian relations and the implications of Assad's fall.

What happened in Syria? Is it true that Assad's Syria was a Russian outpost? And what does Ukraine stand to gain from this?

Yes, it is true. It was a fully controlled dictatorial regime under the influence of an external power. Once that external power weakened, it collapsed. Assad’s regime was 100 percent dependent on the Russian Federation and served as a Russian outpost. Regarding Ukraine, there won’t be significant immediate benefits, but in the medium and long term, we can expect support from the new government.

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The reports aren’t confirmed. NATO has stated repeatedly that although it supports Ukraine it has no intention of entering a shooting war with Russia.

Why did the Assad regime fall so easily compared to 2012?

The key factor was the army. The Syrian military collapsed, and there were many reasons for this. No matter how strong a foreign contingent may be, if the local army is unwilling to defend its regime, it cannot hold the country or withstand opposition forces.

How powerful was the foreign contingent?

It’s important to differentiate between equipment and actual ground forces. Most of the foreign fighters were Iranians, with relatively few Russians. Hezbollah partially withdrew its troops during the Third Lebanese War. The Iranians operated on the ground, while the Russians provided auxiliary support, including air power. Iran, like Russia, couldn’t sustain Assad’s regime amid its rapid collapse due to limited resources and capabilities.

Russian propaganda now claims Syria was not strategically important.

This is similar to how they spoke about Armenia when they failed to offer support or their claims of “goodwill gestures” in Ukraine whenever they suffered defeats. Russia has lost in the Middle East, and for domestic propaganda purposes, they’re downplaying this defeat.

Some international experts fear that opposition forces may quarrel and that Islamists could seize power. Is this likely? Who will lead the country?

I don’t think they’ll quarrel. Leadership will likely fall to one of the ministers from Idlib Province, who is already taking on the responsibility. The new government could be formed within days. As for Islamists dominating the government, I’m not certain. The new administration may be entirely technocratic.

Reports suggest the offensive from Idlib had Turkey’s backing. Is this true? Was it Erdogan’s response to Putin?

Turkey’s influence was significant, but Erdogan, as always, exaggerated his role to improve his negotiating position. It’s not a bad strategy, admittedly.

Did Erdogan expect Assad’s regime to fall so quickly?

I don’t think so. Initially, he didn’t anticipate it, but it became clear after Aleppo's rapid fall. Negotiations for Damascus’s surrender without a fight were already underway before the city was taken.

Will Syria remain a single state, or will it be divided due to Kurdish and Turkish influence?

Syria will remain a single state within its current borders – 100 percent. There won’t be a Kurdish state. Negotiations about autonomy will likely take place, but their outcome is hard to predict. Decentralization is possible, perhaps resembling Ukraine’s model.

What exactly has Russia lost in Syria?

Russia has lost everything—military bases, influence, and respect across the Middle East and even parts of Africa. Their military bases in Syria are now blocked, and they will have to leave. These bases were both symbolic and functional representations of Russian military presence in the region. According to my sources and Syrian public sentiment, both Russia and Iran’s continued presence in Syria is unacceptable.

Iran has alleged that Ukraine helped the rebels, particularly with drones. Can this claim be trusted?

Not. It’s a complete lie.

But we’ve seen many pro-Ukrainian signals from Syrian Democratic Forces. Can you elaborate?

Syrian civil society has shown the most support for Ukraine from among all Arab nations. They’ve raised funds globally, organized medical aid efforts, and supported Ukraine in other tangible ways. In the regional context, Syrians’ contributions to Ukraine’s efforts have been substantial.