In a stunning turn of events, the Syrian government of Bashar al-Assad, a key ally of Moscow, has fallen to rebel forces, dealing a severe blow to Russia's image as a global powerbroker. This unexpected development has exposed the limitations of Russia's military reach, particularly as its offensive in Ukraine continues to drain resources and manpower.
The lightning-fast rebel offensive, which took less than two weeks to topple the Assad regime, caught the Kremlin off guard. Russian news agencies report that Assad has been granted asylum in Moscow, fleeing a capital now under rebel control. This rapid collapse has left Russia scrambling to secure its strategic interests in the region, including its naval base in Tartus and airbase in Hmeimim.
Ruslan Pukhov, in an opinion piece for the Russian daily Kommersant, bluntly stated, “Moscow does not have sufficient military forces, resources, influence and authority to intervene effectively by force outside the former Soviet Union,” per AFP. This assessment has become increasingly evident since 2022, as Russia's “protracted” offensive in Ukraine has significantly depleted its military capabilities.
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Despite attempts to intervene with air strikes in late November, Russia's response was notably limited. Political analyst Fyodor Lukyanov told AFP, “Attempts to maintain (Assad) would have ended in failure anyway. Russia has other priorities now, and resources are not infinite.”
The fall of Assad has forced Moscow into an awkward position, conducting “negotiations” with rebel groups it previously targeted to ensure the safety of its citizens and embassy staff. Russian spy chief Sergei Naryshkin stated, “This is now the main goal — to ensure the safety of our people.”
The potential loss of Russia's military bases in Syria could have far-reaching consequences. R. Clarke Cooper, a research fellow at the Atlantic Council think tank, warned, “The damage to Moscow's ability to maneuver in Africa and the Mediterranean may have a strategic impact on Russian influence across the world.”
Russian war correspondents have reacted with a mix of shock and resignation. Alexander Kots wrote on Telegram, “I will not grieve for Syria any more than I would grieve for Izyum, Kherson or Kyiv,” drawing parallels to Ukrainian cities from which Russian forces have retreated.
As the dust settles on this geopolitical earthquake, it's clear that Russia's global strategy is under severe strain. The fall of one of Putin's closest allies may weaken Moscow's position in future negotiations regarding Ukraine, raising questions about the sustainability of its ongoing offensive and its ability to project power beyond its immediate sphere of influence.
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