A British defense minister, Alistair Carns, has warned that the British Army could be decimated in “six months to a year” if faced with a major war akin to the ongoing war in Ukraine, according to a report by Politico.
The minister for veterans’ affairs made the remarks at a Royal United Services Institute conference in London. He attributed the dire outlook to the army’s current size and capacity constraints, highlighting how casualty rates in such a scenario would quickly render British forces non-operational.
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According to Carns, around 1,500 Russian soldiers were killed or injured each day in Russia’s full-scale invasion.
“In a war of scale — not a limited intervention, but one similar to Ukraine — our army, for example, on the current casualty rates, would be expended — as part of a broader multinational coalition — in six months to a year,” Carns said.
He emphasized that without reservists, it would be impossible for the UK to build sufficient force or address the wide range of defense tasks, adding, “That doesn’t mean we need a bigger army, but it does mean you need to generate depth and mass rapidly in the event of a crisis.”
As Politico outlines, the British Army is currently at its smallest size since the 1700s. However, Deputy Chief of the British Defense Staff Rob Magowan reassured last month that the army remains prepared for immediate deployment, stating, “If the British Army was asked to fight tonight, it would fight tonight.”
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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently told Kyodo News that the Ukrainian army currently lacks the strength to retake all Russian-occupied areas, including Crimea, adding, “We do have to find diplomatic solutions.”
At the same time, the number of Ukrainian soldiers deserting has surged. In the first 10 months of 2024, prosecutors opened 60,000 cases against troops for abandoning their positions—more than the combined total for the previous two years, according to a Financial Times (FT) report.
Military analysts cited in the FT attribute the increase in desertions to factors such as Ukraine’s limited ability to rotate troops, insufficient rest periods, rising levels of exhaustion, mental health struggles, and casualties.
In response, the US and UK have urged Ukraine to lower its conscription age to 18 to replenish its forces. A US official reportedly warned that Ukraine is not mobilizing enough soldiers to keep pace with Russia’s growing military.
However, Zelensky told Sky News that the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) face a more significant challenge from insufficient weapons and equipment from Western allies than from personnel shortages.
“Some leaders told me you need younger [conscription age]. I said: what do you want them to do? To die without your weapons?” he said.
Zelensky also revealed that Kyiv’s Western allies have fully equipped only two and a half of the ten planned brigades, despite agreements made over a year ago to supply them
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