President Elect Donald Trump has repeatedly declared he would end the war that Russia has inflicted on Ukraine. He would supposedly do a deal (?!) and force Ukraine and Russia to a “negotiated” settlement at a table he would set. The upcoming “negotiation” participants, and the whole world, are wondering what the results might look like.
If Trump is successful at even arranging such negotiations (both sides have a list of mutually exclusive non-negotiable positions) and IF those negotiations achieve a result that Ukraine considers just and acceptable, while Russia is unable to claim any form of victory for its ill-conceived war of belligerent conquest, replete with war crimes and vast loss of life, then the applause should be reminiscent of the average New York City ticker tape parade.
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Is optimism warranted? Trump’s spate of recent cabinet nominations is one indication. But don’t get the confetti out just yet.
As Trump takes office in January 2025, he will find conditions that should allow just such a victory. Ukraine – with much less than a third of the population of Russia (roughly 37 million versus 143 million) – has managed to stymie Russia’s vaunted military in its best effort to defeat them for coming up on three years.
The Russians have, by some estimates, taken punishment from feisty Ukraine that could be described as embarrassing at the least and possibly even decimating.
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But Russian President Vladimir Putin knows that US Vice President Elect JD Vance, Speaker Mike Johnson, Trump himself and the swath of his nominees for cabinet positions (many seriously unqualified with a known anti-Ukraine bias) are all singing the same song: “We don’t want to pay for this anymore and we want it ended.” Is that regardless of the ramifications?
Putin can sense that his goals are close to being already baked in the cake. He will play “hard to get” to the table, having already stated that he is “ready for peace talks, but only if his earlier demands are met for Ukraine to submit to Russia’s control.” [Wall Street Journal, Nov. 11, 2024: “Moscow, Kyiv Intensify War…”]
Once you boil out the misinformation rhetoric, it’s apparent that Putin’s goal is to build an empire through military force and deceptive diplomacy. He doesn’t want peace at all, but he knows how to dangle it as a mirage for any pending negotiation.
Russia wants to keep all the land it has stolen, and wants Russian citizens to occupy 20%(+) of Ukraine’s sovereign territory. It wants to dictate that Ukraine will be neutral (not in NATO and thus vulnerable), that sanctions will go away, and to not be held accountable for a single ruble for anything it has done.
A foreign policy cannonball to the free world?
With Vance, Gaetz and Gabbard on board, you can almost visualize the head nods from the incoming Trump administration. The pending “negotiations” might actually turn out to be little more than a charade, frog marching Ukraine to the table to insist it signs its own surrender terms.
The negotiations between Russia and Ukraine would probably stand as the “Foreign Policy Super Bowl” of Trump’s whole four-year term. There is a palpable sense that Trump’s definition of a “success” is quite different from that of most governments in the West.
He would probably smile big and declare victory if resultant cease fire conditions are minimally inconvenient for Russia (for which he would stay on Putin’s Christmas card list) and seriously tenuous at best for Ukraine (which is aware that the value of Putin’s word or signature can only be described in terms of Monopoly money).
If the Trump/Vance camp accomplishes its “negotiations” in such a way that congratulatory phone calls come in from Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, and Chinese leader Xi Jinping, it will be time for the rest of NATO, Taiwan and South Korea to start worrying at an all new level. If this is what comes to pass, Trump will post his own applause on “Truth” Social, while the rest of the free world struggles with the fallout from a disastrous diplomatic failure on a par with Neville Chamberlain’s memorable accomplishment in Munich in 1938. Or worse.
President Volodymyr Zelensky has a fiduciary responsibility for the welfare of his nation. He can be expected to reject any commitment that is blatantly hazardous to his population and sovereign borders. He knows that “peace at any price” is not worth the price – and that it has been proven through history to be a trap.
Depending on the level of inflexibility that accompanies any unacceptable terms he’s pushed towards, Ukraine’s only option might well be to walk away and take its chances fighting on – without US support (which, while large, has managed to be something of a frustrating disappointment anyway).
The chips would then fall where they may, but at least, then, Ukraine will not have been arm-twisted into inevitability, disappearing behind the new version of an iron curtain of Putin’s construction. If Ukraine does walk away, the Trump administration and Russia might then, in harmony, claim that Ukraine refused to negotiate and is guilty of forfeiting its chance for a “negotiated settlement.”
Team Trump would never admit it, as it closes the checkbook and folds up the tablecloth, but under this scenario, it would have then notched a huge world class diplomatic failure. It would very well rank right up there with the smooth US exit from Viet Nam and the smooth US exit from Afghanistan. Or worse.
It’s not too late to nudge the rudder on this Titanic. What would that take? Possibly an outpouring of influential voices confirming that Trump can garner one of two possible positions in the history books in perpetuity. He can choose to become known forever as a strong leader who played hardball with Russia as a stalwart of democracy – deserving of that ticker tape parade – or, alternatively, as a duplicitous “useful idiot” on Putin’s behalf.
A lot can happen between inauguration and sending out the invitations to the table with little flags and pens waiting to be put to use. I’m still hoping for what we (the West, including Ukraine) can call a valid success, but don’t start planning the parade route just yet.
The views expressed are the author’s and not necessarily of Kyiv Post.
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