Should Ukraine Become a Nuclear Power?

After the collapse of the USSR, Ukraine agreed to the withdrawal of Soviet nuclear weapons when it signed the Budapest Memorandum. In return, it received security guarantees that now prove worthless. According to reports in the British newspaper The Times, an investigation commissioned by the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence has come to the conclusion that Ukraine could develop nuclear bombs within months. The press is divided.

Threat could work to Kyiv's advantage

Merely giving the impression that it could acquire nuclear arms could make sense for Ukraine strategically, The Independent argues:

“Ukrainians have long bemoaned their first post-Communist government's decision in 1994 to transfer the Soviet-era atomic weapons from its territory to Russia. ... Any Ukrainian nuke cobbled together in a crisis would have negligible military value, and its use on a civilian target like Moscow would outrage Kyiv's friends - and could provoke a cataclysmic retaliation by Putin. But raising the issue could serve a rational purpose for Zelensky. It could push the Europeans and the Americans to press Russia to make peace before he goes overboard.”

Only if absolutely necessary

In Postimees, defence expert Rainer Saks doubts that Kyiv really intends to develop nuclear weapons:

“The Ukrainian leadership, right up to the president, has ruled out this possibility, although it now regrets the decision taken in the Budapest Memorandum, because Russia's full-scale offensive could have been avoided if Ukraine had nuclear weapons. ... However, the author of the Ukrainian paper who was consulted by The Times argues that a nuclear bomb could be developed if military aid from the US and other countries were withdrawn and the Russian army attacked Pavlohrad, near Dnipro.”

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