‘Kremlin Unwilling to Concede Its Maximalist Objectives’ – Ukraine at War Update for Nov. 15

The Polish Press Agency (PAP) on Thursday reported that, according to sources at that country’s foreign ministry, the top diplomats from France, Germany and Poland will meet next Tuesday in Warsaw to discuss the future of aid to Ukraine.

Expected to join Annalena Baerbock, Jean-Noel Barrot and Radoslaw Sikorski are Ukraine’s foreign affairs minister Andriy Sybiha and his Italian counterpart, Antonio Tajani. The Polish ministry said the main topics of discussion will include the future of aid to Ukraine and strengthening NATO’s eastern borders, and the new political landscape resulting from the election of NATO-skeptical Donald Trump as US President and his goal of ending the war in Ukraine in short order.

PAP also reported that the same foreign ministers of the Weimar Triangle (Poland, Germany and France) had a phone call on Nov. 2 about European security policy and the future of European relations with the United States.

Separately, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk spoke with NATO chief Mark Rutte on Wednesday in Warsaw, and announced over the weekend that he will meet with French President Emmanuel Macron, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, as well as leaders of Nordic and Baltic states soon to discuss transatlantic cooperation and the war in Ukraine, Reuters reported.

Special operation in Crimea blows up car of officer who fired cruise missiles at Ukrainian civilians in 2022

Other Topics of Interest

ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December, 21, 2024

Latest from the Institute for the Study of War.

Ukrainian news outlet Suspilne on Wednesday cited sources within Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) stating that its operatives conducted a successful special operation in Crimea to assassinate a Russian naval officer who fired cruise missiles at Ukrainian civilian targets in 2022.

The SBU said its agent planted a bomb on the car owned by Chief of Staff Captain First Rank Valery Trankovsky, of the 41st Missile Boat Brigade of the Black Sea Fleet, blowing it up and killing him.

Sevastopol occupation governor Mikhail Razvozhaev reported that a car exploded there on Wednesday morning, killing a Russian soldier, but did not identify him. Razvozhaev said at the time that authorities had not ruled out sabotage and that Moscow’s occupation administration would likely further crackdown against those it deems to be pro-Ukrainian as a result.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) identified geolocated footage on social media showing the destroyed car in Sevastopol, noting that what were likely Ukrainian partisans have conducted three assassinations of Russian occupation and military officials in the past two months.

Think tank says Kremlin’s Ukraine position remains unchanged after Trump’s election

ISW analysts concluded that Russian leader Vladimir Putin has not altered his thinking about any peace negotiations with Kyiv, saying that his goals of “full Ukrainian capitulation” remain unchanged.

With the election of Trump as the next US president, Kyiv and its Western allies have feared a drying up of American aid to Kyiv, with pundits and politicians wondering aloud how much Trump is willing to concede to the Kremlin in any upcoming peace negotiations.

The Washington-based think tank, however, said that Putin has made no indications he is any more willing to make concessions to the incoming Trump administration than he was under the current leadership of Joe Biden.

“The Kremlin is attempting to dictate the terms of any potential ‘peace’ negotiations with Ukraine in advance of US President-elect Donald Trump's inauguration,” ISW analysts wrote. “The manner in which the Kremlin is trying to set its terms for negotiations strongly signals that Russia’s objectives remain unchanged and still amount to full Ukrainian capitulation.”

The report continued: “Putin’s statement about negotiating with the United States does not mean that Russia’s military goals in Ukraine have changed and that instead, Russia’s goals remain the same. Putin may be attempting to posture himself as reaching out to Trump, but Putin is signaling to his domestic audiences that the Kremlin is unwilling to concede any aspect of its maximalist objectives in Ukraine or the wider global arena.”

The ISW noted that Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs Spokesperson Maria Zakharova claimed on Wednesday that peace can only be achieved when the West stops providing military assistance to Ukraine. The same day, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov also claimed and that any proposals to freeze the frontline are “even worse” than the Russia-favorable Minsk Agreements that followed Russia’s first invasion of Ukraine in 2014.

“Zakharova’s and Lavrov’s statements also undermine Putin’s recent efforts to feign interest in a willingness to ‘restore’ US–Russian relations with the new US presidential administration,” the ISW wrote “and instead indicate that Putin likely is taking for granted that the Trump administration will defer to the Kremlin’s interests and preferences without the Kremlin offering any concessions or benefits in return.”

Ukraine clears benchmark for sixth IMF installment, Prime Minister says

Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal announced on Thursday that the Ukrainian government has met all the requirements of the International Monetary in order to qualify for the sixth tranche of aid, worth about $1.1 billion. Kyiv can expect to receive the funds before the end of December.

 “We successfully completed the fifth review of the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) program at the end of October,” Shmyhal’s office wrote. “We have met all structural benchmarks for the sixth review. Based on the results of the current mission, we expect to receive the next tranche of US$1.1 billion by the end of December.”

According to the IMF’s overview of its work in Ukraine, “The overarching goal of the US$15.6 billion extended arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility is to help Ukraine solve its balance of payments problems and sustain economic and financial stability at a time of exceptionally high uncertainty, restore debt sustainability, and promote reforms that support Ukraine’s recovery on the path toward EU accession in the post-war period.

“As the conflict subsides, the program will shift focus to more expansive reforms to entrench macroeconomic stability, support recovery and early reconstruction, and enhance resilience and higher long-term growth, including to support Ukraine’s EU accession goals.”