ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October, 30, 2024

Key Takeaways from the ISW:

• Western intelligence officials reportedly stated that North Korean troops are in an unspecified area in occupied Ukraine.
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky highlighted enhanced Ukraine-South Korea cooperation amid since-retracted reports that South Korea would consider providing direct military assistance to Ukraine.
• The Kremlin is reportedly struggling to prepare for the September 2026 Russian State Duma elections campaign due to uncertainty about the course of the war in Ukraine, suggesting that the Kremlin is not confident that Russia will be able to win the war over the next two years.
• The Kremlin simultaneously continues to militarize various levels of Russian government, likely in preparation for long-term war efforts in Ukraine and confrontation against NATO despite the reported lack of preparation for the Duma elections.
• The US Treasury and State departments sanctioned nearly 400 entities and individuals from over a dozen countries on October 30 in one of the largest concerted efforts to address Russian sanctions evasions via third parties to date.
• Ukrainian forces recently regained positions near Pokrovsk.
• Russian forces recently advanced in Kursk Oblast and near Kreminna, Chasiv Yar, Pokrovsk, and Kurakhove.
• Russian occupation authorities continue to advertise Russian military service to civilians in occupied Ukraine.

Authors: Nicole Wolkov, Kateryna Stepanenko, Angelica Evans, Davit Gasparyan, and Frederick W. Kagan.

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