With only days to go, the 2024 US presidential election is in full swing. Millions of Americans have already cast their ballots having responded to calls by both campaigns to cast their ballots by mail, with early voting turnout setting new records across the country.
Despite these impressive numbers, tens of millions of Americans will still opt to vote in person on election day. Many will continue to research candidates before voting, so each campaign will be working hard to earn these votes. Some of these voters will be from the Armenian and Azerbaijani communities.
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The relationship between Armenia and Azerbaijan is fragile. For several decades, the two countries have contested over the Nagorno-Karabakh region. Thousands of Armenians and Azerbaijanis died during the ongoing conflict. Representatives of both sides worked together to broker ceasefires, but these agreements were violated on numerous occasions. The fighting continued, and the peace process fell short. Unable to make many gains with European dignitaries, the Armenians and Azerbaijanis turned to the United States, Turkey, and Russia to serve as intermediaries.
One major event in the conflict occurred in September 2020. For 44 days, Armenian and Azerbaijani forces skirmished over the contested Nagorno-Karabakh region. Over six thousand Armenians and Azerbaijanis were killed in the fighting. Officials from Armenia and Azerbaijan called for assistance from the international community as they strove to de-escalate the situation.
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These calls for assistance, however, were initially ignored. For example, during the renewed fighting, the Trump-Pence administration was slow to respond to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. For several weeks, members of the Armenian American community called on the Trump administration to react. This diaspora community called on the president to condemn Azerbaijan’s actions in the region, and they asked that the president help broker a peace agreement between the two.
Instead, their community was left disappointed. For several weeks, Trump refused to comment on the fighting, although the administration did provide tens of millions of dollars in humanitarian aid.
In response, thousands of Armenian Americans gathered outside the White House to protest the lack of action from the US. The president would eventually issue a joint statement with France and Russia, where they called for an end to the fighting. However, the statement fell short of condemning the violence and destruction occurring in Nagorno-Karabakh.
A few weeks later, Trump discussed a need for a ceasefire, with the then-US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo meeting with the foreign minister of Armenia in Azerbaijan. Pompeo eventually helped establish a ceasefire agreement in October 2020. Shortly after the negotiations, the US-brokered ceasefire faltered. The fighting continued, and many more lives were lost. It was not until Russia and Turkey intervened that the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh became more stable, where an agreement was finally reached in November 2020. This left many Armenians and Azerbaijanis disappointed.
Following these events, the US held its 2020 presidential election. The Trump-Pence administration was voted out of office, and the Americans elected President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris.
During the Biden-Harris administration, the United States provided humanitarian and financial assistance to both Armenia and Azerbaijan. Over the past several years, Secretary of State Antony Blinken has met with Armenian and Azerbaijani dignitaries to discuss the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. He has frequented these meetings, traveling to the region to discuss the conflict. He has also met with Armenian and Azerbaijani officials in Washington and at various events in Europe attempting to maintain constant dialogue.
Despite these meetings, relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan remained tense. In December 2022, Azerbaijani forces implemented an illegal blockade of the Nagorno-Karabakh region. For nearly a year, Azerbaijan controlled the flow of trade and goods into the region. Blinken stated that the United States was “deeply concerned” with the situation developing in the area, and he called for an end to Azerbaijan’s military operations. Despite calls to end the growing tensions, the Azerbaijanis maintained their blockade, and by the autumn of 2023, the Azerbaijanis launched an incursion and forcefully captured the region.
After this, the United States continued to urge Armenia and Azerbaijan to hold peace talks. Between the autumn of 2023 to the summer of 2024, Blinken continue to speak with Armenian and Azerbaijani officials. By the summer, he believed that the governments of Armenia and Azerbaijan were nearing a “significant deal” that could potentially strengthen relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan. It remains to be seen how these discussions will conclude, however, as Armenia and Azerbaijan are still discussing the framework of these peace talks. But does the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict relate in any way to the 2024 US presidential election?
According to The Hill, there are over 1.5 million ethnic Armenians and nearly one million ethnic Azerbaijanis living in the United States. These communities could play a critical role in the 2024 election as many ethnic Armenians and live and vote in Michigan and Pennsylvania, two significant battleground states. Trump narrowly won these two states during the 2016 election, while Biden won Michigan and Pennsylvania by a close margin in 2020. These two states are also projected to play an important role in the 2024 election, and the Armenian and Azerbaijani vote will play an essential role in the outcome of the Michigan and Pennsylvania vote.
Both candidates are also aware of the significance of the Armenian and Azerbaijani vote. In fact, the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict was even mentioned on the campaign trail. During an event in September, Trump said that if he was elected president, he would “restore peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan.” Meanwhile, Harris issued a statement to the Armenian American community in late September in which she pledged to “continue to support Armenia.”
Ethnic Armenians and Azerbaijanis have taken notice of the statements made during the campaign. Now, these communities will need to determine which of the candidates will be best for their ethnic homelands.
In short, the Trump-Pence and Biden-Harris administrations are familiar with the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and the tensions that exist between the Armenian and Azerbaijani communities. Both administrations have viewed the conflict differently, and they took their own approaches to best work with dignitaries from both countries.
Now, as the Trump and Harris campaigns prepare for the final days ahead of the election, they will be looking to sway the opinions of the two communities, especially in the two battleground states of Michigan and Pennsylvania, where they will play an important role.
Mark Temnycky is an accredited freelance journalist covering Eurasian affairs and a nonresident fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center. He can be found on X @MTemnycky
The views expressed in this opinion article are the author’s and not necessarily those of Kyiv Post.
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