Study Estimates North Korea’s $5.5 Billion Military Supply Deal with Russia in Ukraine War

North Korea’s arms deal with Russia could be worth up to $5.5 billion, providing a critical lifeline as Russia faces mounting ammunition shortages in its war against Ukraine, according to researcher Olena Guseinova from Hankuk University of Foreign Studies in Seoul.

Reports suggest Moscow has turned to Pyongyang not only for weapons but potentially even personnel. Guseinova’s study outlines a deal with North Korea that could provide Russia with urgently needed military supplies.

“Taking into account potential price variations, the total cost of the arms deal is estimated to range between $1.72 billion and $5.52 billion,” the study read. “Guseinova estimates the value of the arms deal between the two countries at up to $5.5 billion, viewing North Korea’s military support as a critical, timely resource for Moscow.”

Intelligence reports suggesting that North Korea might be supplying weapons to Russia first appeared in September 2022, around seven months after Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

While initially met with some skepticism due to limited evidence on the battlefield, these reports gained credibility as the intensity of Russian artillery fire gradually decreased. In the early stages, Russian forces fired approximately 70,000 to 80,000 rounds daily in March-April 2022, which fell to 60,000 by May. By January 2023, daily usage dropped to 20,000 rounds, then to 14,000 by April-May, 12,000 by July-August, and just 8,000 by November.

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If this information is confirmed, it would be the first time such a weapon had been used since Russia invaded in February 2022.

This steady decline likely stemmed from Russia’s miscalculation regarding the war’s duration, resulting in faster-than-anticipated depletion of its stockpiles. Even with efforts to ramp up domestic production, Russia’s current output of around 250,000 artillery shells monthly—totaling roughly 3 million annually—can only sustain a daily firing rate below 10,000 rounds. While this rate is adequate for low-intensity engagements, it is insufficient for the sustained, large-scale bombardments required for Russia’s war strategy.

To address this shortfall, Russia has had to look for external sources of ammunition, which appears to have led it to seek support from North Korea.

As per the report, convincing the Kim regime to assist took some time, as the first shipment of military equipment to Russia was not delivered until August 2023—nearly a year after intelligence initially reported on the potential arms deal between Pyongyang and Moscow. This delay suggests that negotiations were challenging and required significant bargaining efforts.

By October 2023, it was confirmed that North Korea had transferred over 1,000 containers of weaponry to Russia. This number surged to 6,700 containers by February 2024 and nearly doubled to either 13,000 (according to South Korean intelligence) or 16,500 (according to US intelligence) containers by August 2024. Ultimately, shipments are expected to reach 20,000 containers by October 2024.

While satellite imagery cannot pinpoint the exact distribution of the contents within these containers, most analysts estimate that approximately 80-95% of the shipments consist of ammunition—primarily 152mm and 122mm artillery shells. The remaining 5-20% includes various other weaponry, such as portable surface-to-air missiles, rifles, rocket launchers, and mortars.

Low-Range Estimate

• $1.72 billion: Based on $300 per 152mm artillery shell, $150 per 122mm shell, $1.5 million per KN-23/24 tactical ballistic missile, and 1 Bulsae-4 anti-tank guided missile (ATGM) vehicle set.
• $2.84 billion: Based on $500 per 152mm artillery shell, $300 per 122mm shell, $1.5 million per KN-23/24, and 2 Bulsae-4 ATGM sets.

High-Range Estimate

• $4.63 billion: Based on $800 per 152mm shell, $500 per 122mm shell, $3 million per KN-23/24, and 2 Bulsae-4 ATGM sets.
• $5.52 billion: Based on $1,000 per 152mm shell, $500 per 122mm shell, $3 million per KN-23/24, and 2 Bulsae-4 ATGM sets.

According to available data, commercial ties between Russia and North Korea have steadily increased from 2022 to 2024. In 2022, trade volume was $3.78 million, rising nine-fold to $34.4 million in 2023 and further increasing to $52.9 million from January to May 2024.

This upward trend suggests a potential return to pre-sanction levels when the average annual trade volume between the two countries hovered around $100 million, the study read. This marks a significant recovery, especially compared to the 2018-2020 period, when annual turnover was approximately $45 million.

Despite this growth, the $52.9 million figure in 2024 remains modest, particularly when compared to the much larger trade volumes between North Korea and China. In 2023, Russia accounted for just 2% of North Korea’s trade, while China dominated at 97%. This imbalance is unlikely to shift in Moscow’s favor soon due to the limited range of goods North Korea can offer.

Even if trade between Russia and North Korea exceeds $100 million in 2024, it is likely to reflect sanctions evasion rather than genuine expansion of their economic relationship. Notably, reported trade statistics do not account for the arms deal estimated between $1.72 billion and $5.52 billion, suggesting that weapon transactions may occur through a barter system or a mix of barter and cash.

The latter is more plausible, as North Korea likely sought a substantial inflow of hard currency to support its struggling economy. Experts note that food and oil are primary items in this barter system; in March 2024, the first direct oil shipments to North Korea occurred since UN sanctions were imposed in 2017.

The report also discusses potential troop deployments, concluding that up to 20,000 North Korean soldiers could be sent to Russia.

Beyond addressing its immediate military needs, Russia aims to leverage its relationship with North Korea and the transfer of military technology to challenge Western alliances, particularly in East Asia. This strategy seeks to create security and diplomatic issues for countries like South Korea and Japan, shifting the geopolitical landscape in Russia’s favor.

However, this approach has limitations, the research said. North Korea’s outdated and unreliable weaponry raises doubts about the sustainability of the arms deal, while Pyongyang's history of shifting alliances makes it an unpredictable partner. Furthermore, empowering a more aggressive North Korea could strain Russia’s relationship with China. Moscow's deepening ties with North Korea, especially in the transfer of sensitive technologies, may further isolate Russia internationally.