‘We Are Hearing Changes in Rhetoric’ – Ukraine at War Update for Oct. 21

On Sunday, Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic spoke to Russian leader Vladimir Putin for the first time since shortly after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine began, discussing the war, an upcoming BRICS summit, and, of course, Russian supplies of fuel to Belgrade.

Although Serbia followed suit with other European countries after the invasion in seeking alternative fuel sources, the country remains greatly reliant on Moscow for its energy.

“I particularly thanked President Putin for ensuring that Russia will provide sufficient quantities of gas for Serbia this winter,” Vucic said on social media.

Serbia has long been a firm Kremlin ally, but as Belgrade vies for European Union membership, it has tempered its relationship with Moscow since the February 2022 invasion began. Vucic has condemned the violation of Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, but it has stopped short of agreeing to sanctions on Russia, especially its oil and gas.

Serbia still has to decide whether to attend next week’s BRICS summit, which was founded by Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa and is joined by four others: Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the UAE. The meeting will take place Oct 22-24 in the Russian city of Kazan and aims to strengthen the partnership’s economic, security, and political ties.

Vucic signaled last week that it is not interested in joining BRICS and favors EU membership instead, although the administration has also floated the idea of belonging to both. The Kremlin said it is still waiting for an official response to the invitation.

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Study Estimates North Korea’s $5.5 Billion Military Supply Deal with Russia in Ukraine War

While the exact contents of the containers from North Korea are unclear, analysts estimate 80-95% are ammunition – mainly 152mm and 122mm artillery shells – with 5-20% being other weapons.

“If I say I’m going to Kazan, it will signal the end of Serbia’s European path. If I say something else, they’ll claim I’ve betrayed the Russians,” Vucic said last week. He said he would announce his decision by Monday.

Vucic made no further comment on the war, except that Belgrade has not changed its position on sanctions.

For its part, the Kremlin said in a statement that the two leaders planned to keep in regular contact and continue their bilateral relations based on “spiritual, cultural, and historical commonalities.” 

“The situation in Ukraine was also discussed. Vladimir Putin provided his assessment of the course of the special military operation,” the Kremlin statement read.

The last time the two leaders had spoken was in May 2022, the AFP noted, adding that Sunday’s call was supposedly meant to mark the 80th anniversary of the Red Army’s liberation of Belgrade from Nazi occupation on October 20, 1944.

Foreign Minister expresses “outrage” at finding Western components in intercepted North Korean missile

An examination of a downed North Korean KN-23/24 missile revealed Western-made components, sparking an angry response from Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha.

“Outrageous,” he wrote on social media platform X, formerly Twitter. “Recent examination of a North Korean KN-23/24 missile shot down in Ukraine found numerous recently produced Western-made components. Putin and Kim still have access to them.”

“We urge allies to respond strongly, tighten sanctions & export controls, boost our air shield,” the minister concluded.

According to Ukraine’s Independent Anti-Corruption Committee (NAKO), the missile shot down in September in the Poltava region contains microelectronics manufactured by companies in the US, Switzerland, the UK, and the Netherlands and most of the microelectronics appear to have been made by American companies.

Evidence of deliveries of North Korean ballistic missiles to Moscow first surfaced in September, while Western intelligence has long been aware of Pyongyang’s supply of artillery shells to Russian forces.

Earlier this month, a report by The Times (UK), citing anonymous intelligence sources, said that up to half of the approximately three million artillery shells per year launched by Russian forces come from North Korea. The sources also suggested that an unusually high number of them may be defective, however.

Pyongyang’s material participation in the war has escalated recently at an alarming rate. The alleged transfer of up to 12,000 North Korean military personnel to Russia, including 1,500 special forces already deployed in Vladivostok, is being monitored through satellite imagery, according to Andriy Kovalenko, the head of the Center for Countering Disinformation under Ukraine's National Security and Defense Council.

Zelensky talks about “very positive signals” from Washington on his new peace plan

President Volodymyr Zelensky thanked his Western partners for their support of his Victory Plan, notably France, Lithuania, the Scandinavian countries, and many other partners within the European Union.

“We’ve also received very positive signals from the United States,” Zelensky said in his nightly address. “We are hearing changes in rhetoric. We are expecting a visit from a team from Washington, so that we can work on the points of the Victory Plan at all operational levels.”

He added that agreements had already been reached on several new support packages, both for defense and energy. There is “no other way to defeat the enemy,” Zelensky said.

Also in his address, Zelensky brought up embarrassing accusations of government officials fraudulently receiving disability payments.

“Unfortunately, there are things going on here, in the rear of Ukraine, that make external enemies seem unnecessary. This is truly an internal enemy,” he said, lamenting “the audacity of certain individuals – particularly prosecutors – who used their connections with the MSECs [Medical and Social Expert Commissions] to obtain fake disability statuses.”

“I expect swift and decisive action from law enforcement, especially from the Security Service of Ukraine, the State Bureau of Investigation, and the Prosecutor General’s Office. I have scheduled a meeting of the National Security and Defense Council,” the president said.

High-profile Russian milblogger and social media influencer wanted by State Department for US election meddling

The US State Department announced that it is offering a reward of up to $10 million for information leading to any foreign person or entity engaging in election interference, AFP reported Sunday.

The State Department specifically mentioned a Russian social media organization co-founded by a prominent Russian milblogger who has been stoking anti-Western narratives online.

It said that the company, Rybar LLC, used its platform on X to “sow discord, promote social division, stoke partisan and racial discord, and encourage hate and violence in the United States,” especially by fomenting anti-immigrant sentiment.

It alleged that Rybar receives funding from Russian defense industrial organization Rostec, which has been under US sanctions since 2022. 

Rybar was co-founded by the milblogger Mikhail Zvinchuk, who was once a Defense Ministry employee and a veteran of spetsnaz special operations units. He has been under European Union sanctions since June 2023. 

“Rybar relies on the connections and funding from Rostec to bolster Russia’s military capabilities and advance pro-Russian and anti-Western narratives,” the State Department wrote in its statement.

The State Department encouraged anyone with knowledge of Rybar’s “malign influence operations” or any oher foreign actors to contact the Rewards for Justice tip line.