OPINION: A Tacit Peace Proposal from the Kremlin?

On Oct. 16, Konstantin Remchukov, owner and editor of Russian newspaper Nezavisimaya Gazeta, published an important article in his newspaper. The BBC’s Moscow correspondent Steve Rosenberg drew deserved attention to it. In his magistral article “About Putin and Russia Today,” Remchukov appears to lay out a Kremlin proposal for peace negotiations in Ukraine.

Remchukov is close to the Kremlin, but a smart intellectual. I used to know him quite well when he was a professor of economics at the Patrice Lumumba People’s Friendship University in Moscow. He then became Russian oligarch Oleg Deripaska’s skillful political consultant for many years.

Remchukov is an interesting figure because he stays close to the Kremlin but dares to say more than most. The Oct. 16 article reads like the kind of trial balloon the Soviets used to publish in the government organ Izvestiya – important but not orthodox, unlike the articles in the party newspaper Pravda.

As in any serious Soviet article, Remchukov starts with what is perfect (even if it isn’t), that all power is concentrated in the hands of the almighty leader: “[Vladimir] Putin makes all fundamental decisions personally.” It then notes the almighty being eternal: “Putin has no intention of retiring.” Remchukov claims not very credibly that Russia's economy is okay, but that is beyond his current scoop.

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In the old Soviet days, we always looked for the word Odnako, meaning “but, yet,” indicating that the narrative had turned to criticism. Remchukov has mixed up the Soviet structure, but he is clear enough: “The task of ensuring the country’s security and protecting Russians and Russian speakers in Ukraine... has become the main existential meaning of [Putin’s] rule. He cannot transfer power to anyone until this issue is finally resolved, secured by international guarantees.”

Remchukov’s key message is that Russia is ready for negotiations about Ukraine: “Today it is absolutely clear that the world... is ripe for real negotiations on [the risk of a nuclear threat].” Needless to say, it is only Russia that is threatening nuclear war, but who is the Western politician most easily scared by this standard Soviet threat? Remchukov spells it out with clarity: “The the most serious Western politician who actually understands the consequences of a nuclear war, [US President] Joseph Biden, is unfortunately leaving in a few months.”

Effectively, Remchukov is saying that he thinks neither Donald Trump nor Kamala Harris will be so dumb as to take the standard Soviet threat of nuclear war seriously, but he hopes that Biden will do so and jump into the Soviet trap. He had better not!

Concession signals

Next, Remchukov offers three important tentative Russian concessions that we should take seriously. He dismisses age-old Russian imperialism: “It is time to decisively abandon the notion, once sown by [Polish-American Diplomat Zbigniew] Brzezinski, that Russia's greatness is based on unity with Ukraine. They say, tear Ukraine out of Moscow's sphere of influence, and Russia as a great power will come to an end. Today it is obvious that Russia exists in the world regardless of the degree of closeness to any country.” How clever not to blame Russian imperialism on Ivan II, Ivan IV, Peter I, or Catherine II, but on late Zbigniew Brzezinski! I am sure he would turn in his grave if he read this.

Second, Remchukov reduces Russia's territorial ambitions: “The main goal of Russian troops... is to reach the administrative borders of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions... Putin increasingly uses the following vocabulary: liberation of the Donetsk, Luhansk regions, Novorossiya... The main thing [in the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions] is the ground, overland, connection with Crimea.”  Less significant Kremlin cut-outs have already made similar statements, but it is noteworthy. For the time being, Russia only wants Donbas and Crimea, which does not mean it will get them.

The third and most sensational concession in this article is the recognition of the Ukrainian nation: “Today, Russia recognizes that a significant number of Ukrainians choose the current government in the country, consider themselves Ukrainians, and do not want to see any future together with Russia. In this way, the Russian leadership recognizes the state of Ukraine. When the narrative is spread in the West that Moscow wants to destroy Ukraine as a state, this is an obvious discrepancy with today's realities.” Remchukov dares to write this although Putin has stated repeatedly since 2008 that Ukraine is not a state and does not exist.

While Remchukov makes clear that the Kremlin aspires to negotiations, he does not dare to fully transcend Putin’s contempt for Ukraine. He insists that any negotiations should be carried out with the West and not Ukraine: “When talking about possible negotiations, the West does not even mention the topic of the legitimacy of [President Volodymyr] Zelensky's signature in Putin's eyes... Zelensky did not extend his powers properly.” So how should any negotiations occur?!

Possibly, in order to cover his back, Remchukov tells us not to forget Russia's greatness: “The main question is whether it will be possible to create a new international legal framework for peaceful coexistence not on the ruins of the Third World War.”

Like Rosenberg, I think this article is important. Remchukov is no Kremlin decision-maker, but he is one of its top and most nuanced publicists. His key point is that Russia wants negotiations, but with the West, not with Ukraine, and preferably Biden because he is so afraid of nukes.

Remchukov concedes that Russia is prepared to recognize the Ukrainian nation and state and even to abandon Russian imperialism. Yet, Russia wants the whole of the Luhansk and Donetsk Oblasts as well as Crimea. Curiously, he mentions neither NATO nor the EU, clarifying that they were never relevant for Russia’s aggression.

The views expressed are the author’s and not necessarily of Kyiv Post.