Ballots Across Eastern Europe – Upcoming Elections to Watch Out For

Elections are slated to take place in four Eastern European nations at the end of 2024, potentially affecting the local geopolitical landscape and, with that, Ukraine’s future.

Traces of pro-Russian elements have been reported in all four nations. While only two of them – Moldova and Romania – lie on Ukraine’s doorsteps, elections in Bulgaria and Georgia can also have a direct impact on Ukraine.

Moldova

Moldova is set to hold its presidential election and referendum to join the EU on Oct. 20.

The current pro-EU president, Maia Sandu, is seeking to secure her second term. Her top opponent, former prosecutor Alexandr Stoianoglo, is backed by the traditionally pro-Russian Party of Socialists while running on a neutral-Moldova platform.

If no candidate wins 50% of the vote, another round will take place on Nov. 3.

Chișinău claimed in January that Moscow was attempting to destabilize the country through its breakaway region of Transnistria, backed by pro-Russian separatists. Chișinău also accused Moscow of meddling in the Moldovan elections by paying off voters.

The day of the presidential election will also see Moldovans vote in a referendum on the country’s accession to the EU, with the bloc having started membership talks with Ukraine and Moldova in June.

Reuters, citing a CBS-AXA poll, said Sandu is likely to secure a second term, with 63% of locals supporting the country’s EU accession.

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But the breakaway region of Transnistria, bordering Ukraine’s Odesa region, could be a concern for Kyiv nonetheless, with 1,500 Russian troops stationed there that could increase and threaten Ukraine in the event of a pro-Russian victory following the elections.

Georgia

Georgia is set to hold its parliamentary elections on Oct. 26.

The election marks the first major political event after Tbilisi passed the controversial “foreign influence law“ – modeled after Russia’s similar legislation – proposed by the ruling Georgia Dream party.

The law has led to Western sanctions and put Georgia’s EU accession process on hold.

Opposition leaders have criticized Georgia Dream’s pro-Russian stance despite the country’s invasion by Moscow in 2008, where the lack of sanctions against Russia following the latter’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine has allowed an influx of Russian nationals and capital, with some implicating the country as a sanction-busting hub for Moscow.

Georgia Dream ousted Mikheil Saakashvili’s United National Movement (UNM) in 2012. Saakashvili later fled to Ukraine and became the governor of the Odesa region before returning and being arrested by Tbilisi in 2021 on alleged power abuse charges. He continued to be imprisoned to this date amid reports of health concerns.

Foreign Policy Research Insitute, a US think tank, said the upcoming elections are “less predictable” than previous ones, noting that a Georgia Dream victory would likely spark large protests and further deterioration of relations with the West.

Meanwhile, an opposition victory – which it said is unlikely but possible – could bring Georgia back on track with its EU and NATO accession talks, but also repercussions from Moscow considering the country’s existing economic ties with Russia, fostered under Georgia Dream.

For Ukraine, opposition victory could symbolize a triumph against Russian influence in fellow post-Soviet states. Meanwhile, the pro-Western opposition would likely curb the current trade and materiel transits to Russia, further degrading Moscow’s ability to finance its war in Ukraine. 

Bulgaria

Bulgaria is set to hold its parliamentary elections on Oct. 27 – the seventh election in four years after another attempt to form a government failed.

“Yet in a run of six snap elections, only two have produced an elected government – and both collapsed after reform-oriented politicians attempted to tackle political graft and cut end the country’s energy and security reliance on Russia,” reported EuroNews.

Voter fatigue from the continuous political impasse has led to decreasing turnouts, with the campaigns continuing to be marred by accusations of political propaganda and interference – on Thursday, Bulgarian President Rumen Radev claimed that some parties have been buying votes while accusing authorities of selective enforcement.

Some reports also tied the country’s corruption to Russian elements.

Bulgaria, as a NATO member, has been mostly supportive of Ukraine and supplied weapons to Kyiv against Russia’s invasion. It also has a unique position as one of the few remaining NATO members to produce Soviet-standard munitions used in Ukraine.

However, the efforts have been marred by alleged Russian interference – including acts of sabotage on Emco, a Bulgarian manufacturer that produces Soviet munitions, presumably by Russian intelligence.

While the election results are unlikely to affect Bulgaria’s support for Ukraine, the proliferation of pro-Russian elements can still, theoretically, undermine the country’s aid for Ukraine, be it through sabotage or disinformation.

Romania

Romanians are set to hold a presidential election on Nov. 24 and parliament elections on Dec. 1.

Romania is also a NATO member state and a key player in NATO’s eastern flank defense, with the country currently building the largest NATO military base in Europe. It also hosts F-16 training for Ukrainian pilots.

Far-right elements with a pro-Russian stance also exist in Romanian politics, such as SOS Romania, a small ultra-nationalist Eurosceptic opposition party. However, Romania’s Constitutional Court barred its candidate Diana Sosoaca from the presidential race in recent days, with some controversy.

“This proves the Americans, Jews and the European Union have plotted to rig the Romanian election before it has begun,” said Sosoaca in response to the ruling.

Though the current administration has been supportive of Ukraine, the current pro-Western President Klaus Iohannis is bound to step down after his current term – and with the growing anti-Ukrainian sentiment early this year over agricultural disputes, it’s possible the country’s support can diminish should the far-wing elements gain traction in the upcoming elections.