Polish Support for Receiving Ukrainian Refugees Reaches New Low

One in two Poles are in favor of taking in Ukrainian refugees, the lowest proportion since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of the war-torn country in 2022, the latest poll shows.

CBOS, Poland’s national statistics office, asked respondents about their attitudes towards receiving refugees from Ukraine and sending back Ukrainian men who could qualify for conscription

The number of Poles who think the country should accept Ukrainian war refugees has fallen to 53%, the lowest since February 2022, when as many as 94% of respondents said they supported accepting refugees. This figure remained above 80% throughout 2022.

According to CBOS, the institute believes the rapid decline in support observed in 2023 could be linked to the “grain crisis.” 

From mid-2022, the EU’s opening of so-called solidarity lanes to open up trade with Ukraine resulted in Ukrainian grain and other agri-food imports flooding the Polish market, causing prices for domestic production to fall dramatically.

Open opposition to accepting Ukrainian refugees is now at 40%, compared to 3% in March 2022.

Men are more supportive, with 60% positive about Ukrainian refugees, compared to 47% of women.

Furthermore, fewer right-wing supporters (53%) were in favor of accepting refugees than left-wing supporters (68%). The most supportive are the voters of the governing coalition parties: Left (S&D, 81%), Third Way (Renew/EPP, 72%) and the Civic Coalition bloc (EPP, 71%).

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Opposition voters are more divided. Less than half of PiS (ECR) voters are in favor of accepting war refugees (49% compared to 42% definitely against), even though the party strongly supports Ukraine. Surprisingly, the figure is higher among voters of the far-right Confederation Party (52% in favor and 45% against), who believe that Ukrainians in Poland have too many rights.

Poles want men of military age to be sent back

Respondents were also asked whether the Polish authorities should send males of military age back to Ukraine. As many as two-thirds of respondents (67%) supported this idea, while just over a fifth (22%) opposed it.

Only left-wing voters are mainly against this solution. Most respondents who voted for the other parties support it, with the Confederation (PfE/ESN) voters, who are associated with anti-Ukrainian sentiments, most in favor.

In addition, around one in two Poles (51%) are concerned that Russia might use nuclear weapons against Ukraine, a decrease compared to the beginning of the full-scale war when as many as 77% expressed such concerns.

At the same time, 46% of the respondents want Ukraine to continue fighting, while 39% support peace even at the cost of territorial or political concessions by Ukraine.

When asked if they think Ukraine will have to give up part of its territory, 44% say yes, while 19% think the Russians will withdraw from the territories occupied from 2022, and 6% think they will give up the territory occupied since 2014. Only 4% think Russia will invade Ukraine.

Poland has been a staunch supporter of Ukraine since the early days of the war, not only by taking in refugees but also by providing weapons and other forms of aid.

Earlier this year, Kyiv asked Poland to consider shooting down missiles that flew over Ukraine towards Poland. The government promised to consider the idea, but former NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg ruled it out.

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