Why Has Russia Deployed Two of its Kinzhal Carrying Aircraft to Belarus?

On Wednesday evening, Oct. 9 the Belarusian Hajun military monitoring group reported the arrival of a Russian Aerospace Forces’ MiG-31K at the Machulishchy airfield, 12 kilometers (6.5 miles) south of Minsk, caused interest among military correspondents. When Hajun followed this up by reporting the arrival of a second aircraft on Thursday afternoon the martial cognoscenti became abuzz with speculation on Moscow’s motive for the move.

The MiG-31K is a two-seater, all-weather, long-range fighter capable of carrying the Kh-47M2 Kinzhal aeroballistic missile, which has not lived up to its reputation as a hypervelocity projectile but has outmatched much of Ukraine's air defense capabilities other than the Patriot and SAMP-T air defense systems of which Kyiv has limited numbers.

The Ukrainian Air Force said in January that air defenses had intercepted 25 out of 63 Kinzhal missiles used since the start of the full-scale invasion with two more having reportedly been shot down over Kyiv this week.

Russia had moved three of the MiG-31K fighters to Belarus in October 2022 before withdrawing them in April 2023. They were not deployed on operations at the time, and it was speculated that this was done to protect them at a time when Ukrainian air defenses had been achieving success against Moscow’s air forces.

Some observers think this may be the same reason this time. On Aug. 14, a Ukrainian mass drone attack hit the Savasleika military airfield in the Nizhny Novgorod region of Russia. At least one MiG-31K and two Il-76 aircraft were destroyed with as many as five other aircraft, possibly MiG-31Ks, being damaged.

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The head of the Kupiansk military administration said the Russian assaults one day earlier as "very difficult" but said the Russian troops retreated and the situation was again under control.

According to Bohdan Dolintse, an aviation commentator and head of Ukraine’s Institute of Management and Strategies, Russia had less than a dozen serviceable MiG-31Ks at that time. In the best case (or worst case for Moscow) that could have put half of the available aircraft out of commission. That would lend credence to the suggestion that the MiGs have been moved for protection.

Andrii Kovalenko, head of Ukraine’s Center for Countering Disinformation (CCD), supports that idea but also wonders if it could be an attempt at provocation by encouraging (or simulating) a Ukrainian attack on the aircraft on Belarusian territory which would draw President Olexandr Lukashenko to participate directly in the war for the first time.

Another hypothesis reported in the RBC-Ukraine news site, citing the military commentator, retired Ukrainian Armed Forces Major Oleksii Hetman, could be in preparation for another mass missile attack which Ukraine’s military intelligence agencies have been anticipating for some time.

Kostiantyn Kryvolap, a former test engineer at the Antonov Design Bureau and now an analyst and aviation expert has considered a more sinister possibility.

Launching an attack either directly from Belarus or by withdrawing into Russian territory but firing over its airspace would alter the conventional attack profile by the MiGs making it harder for Ukrainian forces to intercept. It would also allow the full 1,500-kilometer (940-mile) range to be used against Western Ukraine while inhibiting Ukrainian air defense from engaging the missiles or aircraft until they were clear of Belarus for fear of drawing Minsk into the war.