Since Russia launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022, current and projected figures point to $1.2 trillion in lost revenue and $386 billion in lost added value for Ukraine.
The estimates, from Kyiv School of Economics (KES), cover the period February 2022 to June 2024 (actual losses) and a forecast up to the end of 2025 (projected losses).
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KSE analysis is based on looking at the revenue of companies in 2021 (prior to the full-scale invasion) and revenue in 2022-2023, combined with forecasts for economic development from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
The data help to show what the state of Ukraine’s economy might have been had the invasion not happened and how it has affected the sectors and regions that contribute most to Ukraine's GDP.
Impact of the invasion on Ukraine’s most productive sectors
The KSE report includes estimates of damage to sectors that contribute most to Ukraine’s GDP, as follows:
- Commerce – $450.5 billion
- Construction – $409.9 billion
- Agriculture – $83.1 billion
- Energy – $43.1 billion
- Transportation – $38.8 billion.
Exporters have been affected by logistical problems; warehouse and factory operators have suffered losses from destruction or partial damage to these sites in missile or drone strikes; and electricity deficits have affected production rates.
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Emigration and mobilization have negatively affected available employees, while falling income and consumer sentiment, along with emigration, have affected demand.
Social sector damage
Additional losses stem from state and business costs in demining ($42 billion), housing sector costs ($22.4 billion) and additional expenses incurred by Ukrainians while fleeing military action ($15.4 billion).
The need to restore the housing and utilities sector following damage or destruction from missile or shelling attacks is estimated at $7.7 billion. More than half of the housing stock in a significant number of cities and towns has been damaged or destroyed.
Housing in Ukraine’s eastern cities– notably Mariupol, Kharkiv, Chernihiv, Severodonetsk, Rubizhne, Bakhmut, Maryinka, Lysychansk, Popasna, Izyum and Volnovakha – has suffered the greatest destruction.
State losses are also factored in. Government spending on social benefits continues to grow, amounting to $10 billion. The cost of dismantling destroyed facilities and removing waste across all sectors amounts to $13.4 billion.
KSE has also estimated losses for other sectors of Ukraine’s economy, as follows:
- Digital infrastructure and the IT sector – $19.3 billion
- Education and science – $14.5 billion
- Healthcare – $11.4 billion
- Culture, sports and tourism – $7.3 billion
- Financial sector – $4.3 billion
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