OPINION: The Key to Ukraine’s Victory Lies in the West’s Courage

After almost three years of attritional fighting and a decade of war with Russia, Ukrainian resources are bleeding dry. Every family has suffered a loss; hundreds of thousands are wounded, missing, displaced. Tens of thousands of children abducted with little hope of returning home.

Throughout this ordeal, Ukraine has managed to push back with an array of different types of Western weapons supplied in incredibly small amounts and often too late to make a difference on the battlefield. It managed to fight back nonetheless, despite restrictions on the use of the provided weapons, upholding the principles of Article 51 of the UN Charter, which reinforces the “inherent right of individual or collective self-defense if an armed attack occurs.” Remarkably, while the Eastern front still holds, Ukraine has managed to go behind the enemy lines and take up over 1,000 sq. kilometers of Russian land.

Yet, despite all of these tremendous successes, Ukraine’s chances of achieving a decisive victory on the battlefield while being constrained by its own allies grow slimmer by the day. The paralysis gripping the Western alliance – particularly the US – poses an existential threat, as American political divisions and upcoming elections continue to hold Ukraine’s fate hostage.

The US political landscape has become deeply entrenched in partisanship, with Ukraine caught in the crossfire. President Volodymyr Zelensky went to Washington to present a so-called “Victory Plan.” His goal was to secure its implementation by the current Biden administration and ensure that even with a possible change of leadership in the White House, the next US President would remain committed to Ukraine. In theory, this approach would prepare Ukraine for any possible election outcome in the US.

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Kazakhstan is a member of the Moscow-led CSTO security alliance but has expressed concern about the almost three-year war, which Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has refused to condone.

The plan has failed. Zelensky’s team, sadly, did not manage to overcome the tribalism of American politics today, and instead of securing support, Ukraine, yet again, found itself in the midst of American political infighting. What should be a matter of global security has become a political football. Republican candidates have flirted with isolationist rhetoric, questioning continued US aid to Ukraine. Meanwhile, Democrats, though publicly supportive, have been slow in delivering the decisive military aid Ukraine desperately needs. Washington’s indecision is palpable, and it’s costing lives.

The main point of contestation remains the US refusal to allow Ukraine to use Western weapons to strike Russian territory. Fears of escalation have paralyzed the world’s greatest superpower, much to the delight of the authoritarians of this world. This self-imposed restraint is nothing short of handing Putin a lifeline, allowing him to drag this war out indefinitely. Imagine if during World War II, the Allied forces had allowed Hitler to hold Poland, Czechoslovakia and France, for the avoidance of escalation. What if the Brits weren’t allowed to go on with the D-Day landing? The world would look very different today if the leaders of the past had been as hesitant as those of today.

History teaches us that the only way to defeat authoritarianism is to confront it without hesitation. The same holds true today. If the West continues to hide behind a veil of self-imposed constraints, Ukraine’s fight will become even more perilous, and Putin will seize on every opportunity to divide not just the country at war but the entirety of the Western alliance.

For now, Ukraine is thanking the US for another tranche of assistance which includes glide bombs, additional ammunition, air defense and fighter jets. But this support, though appreciated, is far from enough to secure victory. It merely helps Ukraine stay afloat in a war that requires more than just survival – it requires overwhelming force to win.

The UK has taken commendable steps, with David Lammy indicating that a decision on allowing Ukraine to use Franco-British Storm Shadows against Russian targets may come within weeks. However, it is the United States that holds the keys to Ukraine’s victory, and it must open that door. The time for half-measures is over. If the West truly believes in defending freedom and democracy, it must act decisively to provide Ukraine with the tools it needs to strike back at the heart of Russian aggression.

The upcoming US elections are casting a long shadow over Ukraine’s future. The outcome of these elections could be the difference between Ukraine’s survival and its slow, painful demise. The politicization of Ukraine’s war in American discourse is not just disheartening – it is dangerous. If the US fails to step up now, the window for Ukraine to achieve victory will close, and the consequences will ripple far beyond Europe.

The Western alliance – particularly the United States – must stop kicking the can down the road. Time is running out, not just for Ukraine, but for the future security of Europe. This is not just Ukraine’s war – it is the frontline of freedom versus oppression.

The US, the UK, and Europe must rally together to ensure that Ukraine is not forced to fight this battle alone. The moment for decisive action is now, before it’s too late.

Lord Ashcroft KCMG PC is an international businessman, philanthropist, author and pollster. For more information on his work, visit lordashcroft.com. Follow him on X/Facebook @LordAshcroft.

The views expressed in this opinion article are the author’s and not necessarily those of Kyiv Post.