For three days Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has been promoting his "victory plan" at various levels in the United States. The plan involves forcing Russia into submission with the help of massive military support from the West. Today he is due to discuss the concept with President Biden. The press expresses doubts – regarding the necessary US support and the feasibility of the plan.
Ukraine's last chance
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Historian and social commentator Timothy Garton Ash warns in El País (Spain) that time is running out:
“Even if the US and its allies [do all the things Zelensky wants them to do], would it produce such an effect that Putin's generals would 'tell him he's losing'? ... This may be the last chance to enable Ukraine to achieve something that can plausibly be called victory. ... Otherwise, Kyiv will probably be forced to sue for a cessation of hostilities sometime next year, negotiating from a position of weakness. That would not be peace, just a pause before another round of war. In Ukraine, there would be despair and fury; in the Kremlin, rejoicing; and in the rest of the world, most consequentially of all, swirling contempt for the weakness of the West.”
Just a wish list
President Zelensky's "victory plan" is at odds with the harsh reality, writes Jutarnji (Croatia) list:
“Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is living in the realm of wishes, not reality. 'This autumn will be decisive in determining the further course of the war' is one of the rare sentences that correspond to reality. How harshly he criticised the West for not delivering F-16s. And then when they did arrive, they didn't change the situation on the battlefield. ... But this hasn't stopped Zelensky from presenting his 'victory plan' in the US – a plan with a surreal name that is not supported by key powers such as China. According to Bloomberg, the plan is regarded more as wish list in the West.”
ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November, 4, 2024
No real peace without Russia's collapse
Wishful thinking on the part of the Ukrainian leadership and its Western allies won't achieve a viable solution for peace, gazeta.ua (Ukraine) is convinced:
“In autumn or at some point in the future something could of course be signed that could be called peace or a truce. One can even dream of elections in Ukraine in spring 2025, as some of our partners in the West are now doing. ... But all these ideas must be implemented not in our imagination, but in reality. If Russia does not collapse either this autumn or next spring, there will be neither peace nor elections. No matter what is signed or decided at the highest level.”
Putin must lose power
Two key conditions must be met to achieve peace, writes former Swedish prime minister and diplomat Carl Bildt in Delfi (Lithuania):
“First, Putin would have to lose power. He controls the Kremlin and Russian society with an iron grip, and he is far too wedded to his imperial obsession ever to accept a real peace. Second, Ukraine's future must be firmly secured by membership in the EU and reliable Western security arrangements. ... Such an outcome would be a victory not only for Ukraine, but also for Russia. Freed from self-destructive imperial projects, it could finally start to work on becoming a normal, prosperous twenty-first-century nation-state.”
Ceding territory hasn't been ruled out
Even if Ukraine were prepared to give up territory it would not be enough for Russia, hvg (Hungary) writes:
“It is worth noting that none of the information that has come out about Zelensky's 'victory plan' suggests that the Ukrainian president is insisting that there can only be peace if Moscow withdraws from all occupied territories and pays compensation for the destruction. From this we can conclude that the Ukrainian leadership might be willing to give up some territory temporarily in return for Western security guarantees. However, the real security guarantees Ukraine is demanding are unacceptable to the Kremlin. Putin is also reportedly insisting that Ukraine commit to permanent neutrality.”
Trump couldn't care less
Donald Trump has apparently refused to meet with Zelensky, thus showing that he has made up his mind against Ukraine, writes Rzeczpospolita (Poland):
“It seems that Trump has finally decided to oppose Biden's US policy in Ukraine. Perhaps he is doing this because of the mood among his voters, or perhaps there are other, as yet unknown, reasons. Either way, he is showing that he doesn't care about Zelensky's plans and ideas for ending the war.”
For Kyiv, it's clear who is indebted to whom
In a Telegram post picked up by Echo, Russian political scientist Vladimir Pastukhov analyses Zelensky's interview with The New Yorker on the eve of his visit to Washington:
“The change of tone in his communication with the West is striking. An accusatory, demanding tone has now finally prevailed. ... Ukraine owes nothing to anyone, but it is owed something. It is fighting for the West and in place of the West. ... The question is who will pay to end the war. Ukraine has no intention of paying with its territories. It is the West that should pay with its weapons and its money. Ukraine still expects to be admitted to Nato as soon as possible and to receive the weapons it needs for victory.”
Don't give up on Ukraine
In Libertatea, former Romanian foreign minister Teodor Baconschi warns against a ceasefire with borders that have been shifted by the war:
“This would jeopardise the medium and long-term security of the EU as Putin would embed his armies on a border much closer to the West, Ukraine would remain endemically vulnerable, and former Soviet republics would be even more deeply penetrated by the Kremlin's propaganda and its criminal networks. 'Sovereignist' and Eurosceptic parties would grow ever stronger at the polls, and revisionist states in the rest of the world would feel emboldened by this policy of fait accompli to invade foreign territory. ... The ability of the US to control the international order would be significantly and probably irrevocably diminished.”
A signal to Nato
Delfi columnist Rimvydas Valatka (Lithuania) takes a critical view:
“Ukraine is still asking the US for permission to use Western missiles to attack Russian military bases in Russia. But the US will not allow this. It is shamefully demanding that Ukraine fight the war against Russia with its hands tied. Ukraine's recent attacks on Russian ammunition depots are also a signal to Nato that Ukraine will soon no longer be dependent on Western missiles, but will develop and build its own weapons.”
Reprinted from www.eurotopics.net. You can find the original here.
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