ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 25, 2024

Key Takeaways from the ISW:

• Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to threaten the possibility of a nuclear confrontation between Russia and the West in order to exert further control over Western decision-making and discourage the West from allowing Ukraine to use Western-provided weapons to strike military objects in Russia.
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned that Russia is preparing for potential strikes against Ukraine’s three remaining operational nuclear power plants ahead of the coming winter, highlighting the Kremlin's unwillingness to engage in good-faith negotiations and continued commitment to the destruction of the Ukrainian state and its people.
• A Russian company is reportedly collaborating with entities in the People’s Republic of China (PRC) to develop an attack drone for Russia's war in Ukraine.
• Russia continues to deepen its relationship with Iran's Axis of Resistance, this time reportedly via Iran-brokered talks facilitating Russian missile transfers to Yemen's Houthi rebels.
• Neither Russian nor Ukrainian forces made confirmed advances in Kursk Oblast.
• Ukrainian forces continued to regain positions in Vovchansk.
• Russian forces advanced northwest of Kreminna, in Toretsk, and southeast of Pokrovsk.
• Russian forces reportedly advanced within and around Vuhledar (southwest of Donetsk City) amid continued offensive efforts to seize the settlement.
• Veterans of Russia's war in Ukraine continue to commit crimes upon returning to Russia.

Authors: Angelica Evans, Grace Mappes, Kateryna Stepanenko, Davit Gasparyan, Riley Bailey, and Frederick W. Kagan.

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