Ukrainian Strike on Ammo Depot Could Disrupt Russian Operations for Months

The destruction of a major Russian ammunition depot by a Ukrainian strike on Sept. 18 could significantly disrupt Russian military operations in the coming months.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported on Sept. 22 that the loss of thousands of munitions stored in the warehouse near Toropets, in Russia’s Tver region, may have a long-term impact on Russia’s ability to maintain its military operations at a consistent pace.

Kyiv Post’s sources in Ukraine’s Special Services said last week that the drone strike on Toropets ammo depot was a joint operation by Ukraine’s Military Intelligence (HUR), Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) and Special Operations Forces (SSO).

The warehouse was home to missiles for Iskander operational-tactical missile systems, Tochka-U tactical missile systems, KABs, and artillery ammunition.

According to Estonian intelligence chief Colonel Ants Kiviselg, the strike caused the explosion of 30,000 tons of ammunition, equivalent to 750,000 artillery shells.

Given that Russian forces typically fire 10,000 shells at Ukrainian positions each week, Kiviselg estimates that the strike destroyed enough stockpiles to last two to three months.

While it is unclear whether the 30,000 tons included all types of munitions, the attack clearly dealt a heavy blow to Russian reserves.

According to the American think-tank, ongoing Ukrainian strikes on Russian logistical hubs are expected to create widespread operational challenges for Russian forces.

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These disruptions could compel Russian military leadership to reorganize and disperse supply chains within Russia to mitigate further losses.

There is also speculation that Kiviselg may have misstated the usage rate of Russian artillery, with some analysts suggesting that Russian forces could be firing 10,000 shells per day rather than per week. If true, the loss of 750,000 shells would cover only two and a half months of operations.

As Kyiv Post reported earlier, Ukraine’s strike on the Toropets Northeast Ammunition Depot in Russia’s Tver region was likely the most damaging long-range attack launched by Kyiv in 30 months of combat, and possibly the most devastating air strike ever to hit Russia, World War II included.

Eyewitnesses described massive explosions and apocalyptic fires, with blasts powerful enough to damage nearby villages and shatter windows up to 6 kilometers away.

Ukrainian military intelligence reported around 100 drones were used in the attack. Satellite imagery showed more than half the five-square-kilometer depot was engulfed in flames.

Russian authorities downplayed the incident, but seismic readings recorded 13 explosions, equivalent to small earthquakes.

The depot stored thousands of artillery rockets and missiles crucial to Russia’s war effort. Some reports suggest North Korean-supplied missiles may have been present.

The attack’s destruction could be among the largest non-nuclear explosions in history, with analysts warning of further blasts if fires continued to spread to undamaged bunkers.