‘Misplaced Fears of Escalation’ – Ukraine at War Update for Sept. 23

Speaking from his airplane en route to the United States to lay out his “Victory Plan” to leaders in Washington, President Volodymyr Zelensky on Sunday said in a video address that the “plan for Ukraine’s victory will be on the table for all our allies.”

He said he will present his peace plan to US President Joe Biden this week, and to the Democratic and Republican presidential nominees in the November elections, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, respectively.

Zelensky announced that he was starting the trip in the electoral battleground state of Pennsylvania for a “special visit,” without elaboration, before traveling to the United Nations General Assembly in New York and to meet with Biden and others in Washington, D.C.

One item that has been released is that Zelensky will visit an ammunition factory in Pennsylvania on Monday.

Zelensky said the coming weeks would decide how more than 30 months of fighting that has killed thousands would end.

“It is now being determined what the legacy of the current generation of state leaders will be. Those in the highest offices,” he said.

“This fall will determine what comes next in the war,” the president said.

Before his US trip, Zelensky repeated in no uncertain terms that he was disappointed that the US and UK have not permitted Ukraine to use the long-range weapons deep within Russia but noted that both countries had, at that point, made overtures toward overturning those restrictive policies.

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Ukrainian Naivety is Both Good and Bad

Despite the approach of third year of war celebration of the holiday season in the Ukrainian capital reflects the new-found determination to be positive and optimistic.

In a Sunday night interview on CNN about Zelensky’s impending visit, Congressman Jake Auchincloss (D-MA), a former Marine and member of the House subcommittee on national security, was asked whether Washington backed the dissolution of these restrictions. He responded, “Stridently and vocally. We need to unleash Ukraine to win this war.”

Pressed why he thought the Biden administration had delayed that decision, Auchincloss responded: “Misplaced fears of escalation.”

For his part, Biden said that he would review such policies after he had received more clarity on Kyiv’s overall plan, which is part of Zelensky’s outline.

“We have had some decisions in the history of our relationship with Biden, very interesting and difficult dialogues,” Zelensky said earlier this week, AFP reported, adding: “He later changed his point of view.”

Last week, White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said Biden would “put Ukraine in the best possible position to prevail.” 

Harris has indicated she would continue Biden’s policies on Ukraine. Meanwhile, Trump repeatedly has said that he planned to “put an end” to the war, without offering details on what concessions on either Russia’s or Ukraine’s part that would entail.

On that note, Trump’s vice presidential candidate JD Vance has said that Ukraine should be prepared to give up territory to achieve peace.

“His message seems to be that Ukraine must make a sacrifice,” Zelensky said. “This brings us back to the question of the cost and who shoulders it. The idea that the world should end this war at Ukraine’s expense is unacceptable.”

Zelensky said that Kyiv plans to hold meetings throughout autumn, that the “entire plan” will be ready by “early November,” and that his plan envisages “quick and concrete steps by our strategic partners.” 

Incoming EU defense commissioner calls for “mandatory stockpiles”

Newly appointed EU defense commissioner, former prime minister of Lithuania, Andrius Kubilius, said on Sunday that the 27-member bloc should stock a “minimal level” of ammunition and other weapons so that Europe is better prepared for any invasion from Russia in the future. He called the demand for such EU-made armaments “the biggest issue” for Europe’s defense industry.

The European Union does not yet have a defense minister, per se. This position was introduced by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen earlier this month.

“He [would] work on developing the European defense union and boosting our investment in capacity,” von der Leyen told reporters when describing the new brief. She explained that the major role would be to define and manage the EU’s planned €1.5 billion European Defense Industry Program’s budget for EU defense contractors.

Brussels has not yet confirmed Kubilius for the position, which also would oversee the EU’s space initiatives.

“Why do we not have some kind of criteria called military security to keep in storage such and such an amount of artillery shells?” Kubilius asked the Financial Times.

“You bring added value to the security of member states but, in addition, you are creating permanent demand for production, which is the biggest issue for the defense industry. They lack stable long-term orders for production. Democratic Europeans should be as united as possible,” Kubilius said.

Fighting continues along southern and eastern fronts, as AFU and Moscow’s forces exchange territory

As the counter-invasion into Russia’s Kursk region continues to make headlines, the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) and Moscow’s troops continue trading gains along the front lines in the Donetsk, Luhansk, and Kharkiv regions daily.

On Sunday, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported that AFU troops had clawed back some positions along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna over the weekend, regaining territory northwest of Svatove. Geolocated footage published over the weekend indicates that the AFU recently took over windbreaks west of Kyslivka.

Meanwhile, Russian milbloggers claimed that Moscow’s forces advanced along a front 2.5 kilometers wide and two kilometers deep east of Kruhlyakivka (northwest of Svatove) and that Kremlin invaders are also attempting to advance to Kruhlyakivka, after struggling to defeat AFU fortified defenses near Kolisnykivka.

Russian forces also renewed offensive operations near Chasiv Yar on Sunday, ISW analysts said, but there were no confirmed changes to the front line.