Putin Was Urged to Use Re-Election for New Mobilization

A few months before Putin’s fifth presidential inauguration in May, Russian Ministry of Defense officials suggested Putin leverage his re-election and the associated public support to justify a new mobilization to compensate for losses on the front lines, The Wall Street Journal reported, citing sources familiar with the discussions.

However, according to the WSJ report, the Kremlin chief insisted that only volunteers should be sent to fight, rejecting the idea of forced mobilization.

On Monday, Sept. 16, Putin signed a decree to boost active troop numbers by 180,000, bringing the total to 1.5 million. This decree, effective Dec. 1, mandates that Russia’s armed forces should expand to a total of 2.38 million troops.

The increase would make the Russian military the second largest in the world by active troop numbers, following China.

The Kremlin cited alleged “threats” along its borders and hostility from the West as reasons for the expansion.

“This is caused by the number of threats that exist for our country along the perimeter of our borders,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters.

In 2022, when Russia announced a partial mobilization – much to the displeasure of the population – only 244,000 were mobilized. The current 180,000 target is also similar to the last expansion, which Russia achieved through covert mobilizations, a feat achieved by a mix of rewards and coercion.

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The WSJ highlights the Kremlin’s caution after the issues encountered during the 2022 mobilization, which led to protests, attacks on military enlistment offices, and mass exodus at borders.

Despite Putin declining to pursue a new mobilization, military shortages persist, leading to ongoing discussions within the Russian military leadership.

Moscow has yet to launch a significant counteroffensive following Ukraine’s Kursk incursion, raising questions about the country’s military capabilities.

An anonymous source cited by the WSJ stated that Russia currently lacks the necessary personnel to meet its original war objectives, which include “diminishing Ukraine’s military potential or securing the Russian border areas.”

According to a NATO official, Russia has been covertly mobilizing approximately 30,000 troops per month to sustain the losses on the front, suggesting that the new target could be met within six months without further public mobilization efforts.

The troop expansion has raised concerns about the potential threat to NATO. While Western defense officials have warned of a possible Russian invasion of NATO’s eastern flank in the near future, the current increase is unlikely to pose an immediate risk to the West.

In terms of personnel, Russia’s 1.5 million active troops would be up against NATO’s 3.2 million at full force, including 1.4 million from the US alone.

However, a majority of Russian troops are currently engaged in Ukraine, with Putin estimating that nearly 700,000 troops are involved in the war.

The WSJ report contradicts earlier statements from Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, who asserted in September that there were “no discussions of a new mobilization in Russia.”

Following Putin’s inauguration on May 7, he dismissed Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and appointed Andrei Belousov in his place.

In July, Putin significantly increased payments for contract soldiers, indicating potential challenges in recruiting volunteers for the front.

But considering that most of Russia’s troops and equipment were also concentrated in Ukraine, with Western sanctions affecting – albeit unable to halt – the supply chains Moscow needed to manufacture weapons, the threat of conventional warfare between NATO and Russia remains minimal. 

NATO also reported in June that it “comfortably exceeded“ its target of placing 300,000 troops on high readiness against threats from Russia, though it also acknowledged “capability gaps” such as air defenses and long-range missiles, hinting a partial readiness should things deteriorate.