‘A Plan That Can Work’ – Ukraine at War Update for Sept. 18

On Tuesday, a consortium of Central Asian countries proposed that Germany, in particular, invest in an oil corridor to Europe that would bypass Russian-controlled pipelines and supply.

Kicking off a visit by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz to Kazakhstan this week, Kazakh leader Kassym-Jomart Tokayev said that the “further integration of transport and logistics systems between Central Asia and Europe is an urgent task,” AFP reported. “We are counting on Germany’s help to connect this route to the trans-European transport network,” Tokayev said.

“We invite German partners to participate in this strategic project,” he said.

This was the first trip to Central Asia that any German chancellor has made in over two decades.

Kazakhstan is the largest economy in Central Asia, and part of a “5+1” summit of German leaders and those from five former Soviet Republics in the oil-rich region near the Caspian Sea: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan.

The landlocked Central Asian countries are proposing an oil pipeline that would run through neighboring Azerbaijan and the Caspian to circumvent supplies from sanctioned countries Russia and Iran.

Both Tehran, a Shia Muslim-run country, and Moscow still exert considerable influence over the largely Sunni Muslim region’s economy and politics.

Iran and Turkmenistan are “rapidly expanding transit routes, enabling Tehran to expand its trade with Russia in support of Moscow’s effort to circumvent Western sanctions and boost its economic links with other Central Asian countries,” according to the historically conservative US-based Jamestown Foundation.

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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, meanwhile, said that Kyiv has "fully prepared" its "victory plan" to end the war with Russia, which he has said he will discuss with US leader Joe Biden.

“Iran has moved quickly in this direction for three major reasons,” the defense-focused Foundation’s analysts wrote last week. “First, policymakers in Central Asian states desire multiple export and import routes so that no one country can dominate them. Second, Russia is developing a burgeoning security alliance with Iran and has an interest in projecting power southward toward the Indian Ocean. Third, Russia and Iran face numerous difficulties in conducting trade through either the Caucasus or the Caspian Sea.”

Beyond fossil fuels, AFP wrote, the prospect of sending sustainable energy such as hydrogen, with its limited environmental impact, from Central Asia to Europe via the Caspian Sea is gaining momentum.

“Central Asia’s role is growing at the international level,” Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov said. “Our region has everything it needs to develop: natural resources, rare earths, enormous green energy potential.”

Washington’s ambassador to the UN said that the US is fine with Zelensky’s “victory plan”

The Permanent Representative to the United Nations for the US, Linda Thomas-Greenfield, announced on Tuesday that Kyiv’s allies in Washington have seen the new “peace plan” drafted this week by President Volodymyr Zelensky, calling it “a plan that can work.”

Speaking at the UN headquarters just ahead of the 17th session of the General Assembly, which will continue until the end of the month, the diplomat responded to a reporter’s question about whether US President Joe Biden has reviewed the plan that Zelensky had promised his allies (and has alternatively referred to as a “victory plan”) before late September, when the two leaders are scheduled to meet.

“We have seen President Zelensky’s peace plan,” Thomas-Greenfield said. “We believe that it lays out a strategy and a plan that can work. And we need to understand how we can contribute to that by working with all the presidents who will be here in New York.”

The ambassador added that “we have hope to make some progress” on the issue of peace, without offering clarification.

Earlier, Ukrainska Pravda reported that the Foreign Ministry denied German media reports that Kyiv’s plan called for a cease-fire.

Italy to send SAMP/T batteries to Kyiv before the end of September

Italy’s Defense Minister Guido Crosetto said on Tuesday that Ukraine could expect to receive a SAMP/T air defense system by the end of the month.

Italian state news broadcaster RAI noted Crosetto’s comments at a European defense conference focused on air defenses and the Northern Italian former businessman’s apology that things are running a little later than expected.

“We know how much every minute of delay costs,” he said.

The missile system was first promised in June. That package included a Patriot missile battery from the US as part of a larger agreement with Germany, Italy, Romania, and the Netherlands to provide Ukraine with five such systems plus the SAMP/T system.

Ukraine received its first Aster 30 SAMP/T system a year ago.

The Sol-Air Moyenne-Portée/Terrestre (French for “Surface-to-Air Medium-Range/Land-based”), a Franco-Italian project, is touted as the only European-made system capable of intercepting ballistic missiles. It reportedly can intercept up to ten targets simultaneously.

Last week, the foreign ministers of Ukraine and Italy discussed a new Italian military aid package also.