Russia plans to end the war in Ukraine by 2026 with a victory, according to Kyrylo Budanov, head of Ukraine’s Main Directorate of Intelligence (HUR) speaking at the 20th Yalta European Strategy (YES) meeting in Kyiv.
Budanov revealed that Russia views 2025 as a critical year.
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“2025 is their key year, with the turn of 2025 to early 2026 being crucial for them,” he told the meeting. “They want to conclude the war by then because their calculations show that if they don’t emerge as victors, they will lose any hope of seeing Russia as a superpower for the next 30 years.”
Budanov revealed that Russia expects its problems to intensify by the summer of 2025 due to a combination of financial, economic, and socio-political pressures. He added that Russian military recruitment issues are also becoming increasingly problematic.
“By that time, they will face a choice: either announce another mobilization or reduce the intensity of hostilities, which could be critical for them,” Budanov said.
North Korea’s role in the Russian-Ukrainian war
Budanov highlighted North Korea as Russia’s most dangerous military ally for Ukraine. The supply of weapons and ammunition from North Korea directly impacts the intensity of the fighting.
“A shipment of ammunition [from North Korea] arrives, and within eight days, hostilities intensify,” he told the meeting.
ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December, 21, 2024
This makes North Korea a greater threat to Ukraine than Iran or China, Budanov argued. Ukrainian intelligence is currently seeking effective ways to counter the growing cooperation between Russia and North Korea.
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has reportedly ordered the development and production of new strike drones using artificial intelligence technologies.
Ukraine’s position on the war’s end
At the end of 2023, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky acknowledged that even the commanders don’t know if Russia’s war against Ukraine will end in 2024. In July, Zelensky expressed hope that the hot phase of the conflict could end this year.
By August, Zelensky suggested that the war could eventually end through dialogue, but stressed that Ukraine needs to be in a strong position for any negotiations.
A recent nationwide poll showed that 57 percent of Ukrainians support peace talks with Russia, but only 35 percent are willing to end the war by accepting the de facto borders as of Feb. 23, 2022, which would mean ceding territories that Moscow seized before the full-scale invasion. In contrast, 38 percent oppose negotiations, and 5 percent are undecided.
Support for peace talks has risen by 15 percent since November 2023, returning to levels seen in May 2022, when 59 percent of Ukrainians supported negotiations to seek peace.
Putin’s position on negotiations
Russian President Vladimir Putin recently claimed that Moscow has “never refused” negotiations with Ukraine, reversing earlier statements by Russian officials that peace talks were off the table due to Ukraine’s incursions into Kursk.
Putin referenced the Istanbul negotiations of spring 2022, saying that Russia is willing to engage in talks based on those agreements rather than what he described as “ephemeral demands.”
However, Putin’s terms would require Ukraine to give up control over Russian-occupied territories and reconsider its aspirations to join the EU and NATO—conditions Ukraine has repeatedly rejected. Kyiv Post has analyzed these early peace negotiations in detail.
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