Iranian Missiles in Russia – What Threat Do They Pose to Ukraine?

The West – both the US and the EU – stated that Iran has sent short-range missiles to Russia that are expected to be used against Ukraine within weeks.

Sky News, citing an unnamed Ukrainian source and satellite imageries, suspected the shipment to be 220 Fath-360 ballistic missiles that set sail from the Iranian port of Amirabad on Aug. 29.

Al Jazeera reported that the surface-to-surface Fath-360 has a range of up to 120 kilometers (75 miles) and carries an explosive payload weighing up to 150 kg (330 lbs) with an accuracy of less than 30 meters (98 feet), adding that it “has often been compared with the US-made HIMARS systems that Ukraine has been using against Russian forces.”

Implications for Ukraine

The range of the Iranian Fath-360 is more than four times shorter than that of Russia’s Iskander short-range ballistic missiles, which can reach up to 500 kilometers (310 miles). Thus, the strike would likely be limited to border communities or front-line troops if they were launched from within Russia.

With Fath-360’s range, it would be possible for Moscow to strike Ukraine’s eastern regional capitals such as Kharkiv and Sumy – both approximately 30 kilometers (20 miles) from the border – from within Russian territories.

However, other regional capitals could be in range if Russia were to launch them from within occupied territories.

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The industrial city, which had an estimated pre-war population of more than 700,000 people, lies around 35 kilometres from the nearest Russian positions.

If Russia launches them from the southern occupied territories near Ukrainian-controlled Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, then both cities, as well as Mykolaiv, Kryvi Rih, and the southern part of the Dnipro City would be in range.

Kyiv and western Ukraine would likely be out of range for the Fath-360 missiles – but that won’t be the case if Russia launches the missiles from its ally Belarus’s territories.

Even though Belarus had allowed Russian troops to launch the 2022 invasion – as well as missiles – from its territories in the initial days of the invasion, the Belarusian has thus far been reluctant to actively participate in the war over the last two years.

The country had also beefed up troop deployments near the Ukrainian border in recent weeks – a move some interpreted as an attempt to divert Ukrainian troops from the ongoing Kursk incursion – but it hasn’t been launching missiles at Ukraine nor let Moscow launch missiles from its territories for the last two years, and there are no immediate signs that this stance can change at the time of publication.

As Washington concluded, the current supply of Iranian missiles to Russia would likely be used against targets closer to the front, allowing Moscow to preserve other missiles to strike deeper into Ukraine.