In a move that signaled a shift away from reliance on Russia for weapons supplies, Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić announced the completion of a €2.7 billion ($3 billion) contract to buy 12 French Dassault Rafale fighter aircraft on Aug. 29.
The deal, which had previously been flagged during a visit to Paris in April and took almost two years to finalize, was announced during a joint news conference in Belgrade with French President Emmanuel Macron, who was on a two-day visit to Serbia.
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Macron called the bilateral agreement to provide nine single-seat and three double-seat fighters in 2028–2029 “historic and important,” saying it showed “strategic courage and a true demonstration of European spirit,” by Serbia.
Soon after the announcement, reports on several Serbian and Russian media outlets claimed that one of the provisions of this agreement was that France would reduce the sale price by €400 million ($443 million) in return for a transfer of some of Serbia’s Soviet-era MiG-29 fighter aircraft which Paris would then pass on to Ukraine.
Suspicions about the veracity of the claims soon began to surface as not only has Serbia consistently denied that it has provided any military aid to Kyiv and has refused to join international sanctions against Moscow for its invasion of Ukraine, but the numbers of aircraft supposedly promised by Belgrade – 36 MiG-29s – is over 20 more than the total numbers of the aircraft it is known to hold.
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The Serbian Ministry of Defense website lists only 14 MiG-29 aircraft in service, a figure with which various open-source analysts agree. Of this total, four were inherited from Yugoslavia, six from Russia and four from Belarus.
In refuting the claims Serbia’s Defense Minister, Bratislav Gašić, said: “This is yet another egregious lie and falsehood, the sole purpose of which is to cast a shadow over the acquisition of 12 brand new fourth-generation Rafale multi-role combat aircraft. The MiGs that Serbia owns are Serbian and we will never give them to anyone.”
He went on to say that the MiG-29s held by Belgrade have been fully modernized and will play an important role in Serbia’s defense for the foreseeable future. Gašić said that Serbia was procuring state-of-the-art combat equipment to add to and strengthen the existing capabilities of its armed forces not replace them.
Several commentators pointed the finger at Russia for instigating the rumor about the transfer of the Serbian MiG-29s to Ukraine because of anger that Belgrade had turned to the West rather than Moscow for new equipment. In 2023 Belgrade elected to buy the Airbus C295 medium tactical transport aircraft rather than Russia’s Antonov An-26 (NATO: Curl).
An investigation by the military issues website Defense Express identified the pro-Kremlin “Oktagon” Telegram channel as the original source for the claim there was a two-way aircraft exchange clause in the Rafaele contract. It was quickly picked up and reposted by Russia’s Institute of International Political and Economic Strategies (RUSSTRAT) before being spread by the Serbian media and international media.
Along with Macron’s enthusiastic announcement, French commentators have suggested the fighter aircraft deal was part of a wider strategy aimed at “bringing Serbia closer to the EU.”
Serbia is formally seeking EU membership, but under Vučić’s increasingly autocratic rule it has made little progress towards the democratic reforms, which are one of the main preconditions for membership.
Additionally, the sale of the Rafales to Serbia, which is viewed by many as still a Russian ally, has raised some concerns, particularly as to how Moscow can be prevented from acquiring elements of the aircraft’s advanced technology through Belgrade.
Asked if there were clauses restricting the use of the aircraft an unnamed French official said: “in any contract there are clauses that set a framework for the use of such material.”
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