Will Far Left, Far Right Gains in Germany Shift Berlin’s Ukraine Policy?

The positive results for far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) and left-wing populist Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) – both holding pro-Russian views – during Sunday’s regional elections might be cause for concern regarding Berlin’s future aid to Ukraine.

AfD won a landmark first regional vote on Sunday in the former East German state of Thuringia, taking between 32.8 percent of the vote, followed by the Christian Democratic Party’s (CDU) 23.6 percent and the BSW’s 15.8 percent.

In Saxony, another East German state, the CDU became the biggest party with 31.9 percent of the votes, followed by AfD’s 30.6 percent and the BSW’s 11.8 percent of the votes.

Marianne Kneuer, a professor of politics at the Dresden University of Technology, called the exit polls “alarming.”

“If you add up the vote share of the AfD and BSW, you come to over 40 percent in Thuringia and Saxony. And that is frightening, because it shows that the democratic parties of the center ... have shrunk significantly,” she said.

Netherland-based political commentator Michiel Hilgeman attributed the parties’ success in Sunday’s elections to the region’s communist past and comparatively slower economic development.

“In these regions the economic prosperity is lower than in the western part of Germany. In these eastern states the populace is somewhat nostalgic about the communist days and have historically been more pro-Russian than other parts of Germany,” Hilgeman told Kyiv Post.

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Both AfD and BSW boycotted Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s speech at the German parliament in June, with AfD leaders describing Zelensky as a “a war and begging president” at the time.

BSW’s Sahra Wagenknecht rejected arms deliveries to Ukraine and blamed NATO for the current war, meanwhile rejecting proposals for the US to station missiles on German soil starting in 2026.

He also said that the trend where both the far left and far right share a pro-Russian stance is similar to in France and it could be a cause for concern for Ukraine that the parties are gaining traction in European politics.

“In Germany, we see a similar tendency as in France: In both countries far right and far left parties have pro-Russian points of view and are gaining more votes and therefore influence. These developments could lead to a reduction in support [for] the war efforts in Ukraine,” he said.

He added that even though the results, being on the regional level, would not affect Berlin’s foreign policy, AfD and BSW’s successes nonetheless sent a signal to Berlin.

“The results of yesterday in Germany won’t impact the support directly, because it concerns regional governments which do not make foreign policy. But the results are a signal to Berlin, where the National Parliament is seeded and the current government is executing a pro-Ukrainian policy.

“It is not expected that Germany will stop supporting Ukraine, but the support might be reduced in volume when the AfD and BSW also grow in the national elections in 2025,” he said.

Hilgeman added that the potential participation of the AfD or BSW in a coalition government after the German elections in 2025 could erode Germany’s support for Ukraine.

“In Germany, similar to the neighboring country the Netherlands, a coalition will be formed after the elections in 2025. Coalitions often lead to concessions and compromises, which makes it unlikely that the support for Ukraine will stop, but the support might decline in quantity if the AfD and BSW grow and gain more political power,” Hilgeman added.