Ukraine’s Allies Upbeat on Ability to Supply Critical Howitzer Ammo to Kyiv

Key players in a US-Europe coalition working to deliver large-scale volumes of howitzer ammunition to the Ukrainian army say Kyiv’s forces are now receiving the first batches of what should become a flood of hundreds of thousands of critically needed 155 mm artillery shells - but Ukraine’s embattled frontline soldiers have, for the most part, yet to see them.

Czechia’s Foreign Minister Jan Lipavsky, speaking in Brussels on behalf of a Prague-led group of European states coordinating overseas purchases of howitzer ammunition for Ukraine, said large numbers of shells are already reaching Ukrainian troops.

“The Czech Ammunition Initiative is fulfilling its promise, and by the end of the year we will deliver a half a million, large-caliber shells. In both summer months, July and August, the deliveries were around 100,000 pieces,” Lipavsky said in comments published by major European media outlets on Thursday.

The Czechoslovak Group (CSG), a major arms manufacturer said on Thursday that its companies’ production, along with other European ammunition producers along with Prague-led overseas purchases have placed decisive volumes of howitzer rounds into the hands of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU), which has already delivered battlefield success.

“CSG companies have been working intensively on the implementation of the so-called Czech Ammunition Initiative, which has always had the primary objective of quickly securing as much artillery ammunition as possible for Ukraine, the absence of which, especially in early 2024, had a key impact on the advance of Russian forces in eastern Ukraine,” the corporate statement said.

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Zelensky said Monday that Kyiv believed 11,000 North Korean troops had reached the Kursk border region in Russia, with the West repeatedly warning they could be sent into combat within days.

“Our companies within the framework of the Ammunition Initiative have been fulfilling their commitments even in advance and in quantities that have had and are having a major impact.”

That upbeat messaging of big volumes of NATO-standard and Europe-financed artillery ammunition reaching Ukrainian troops came on the heels of reports from the US that state-run manufacturing of 155 mm shells had expanded production volumes faster than planned, and were delivering thousands of additional rounds every month.

The US news wire service AP on Wednesday reported the US Army’s main plant for manufacturing 155 mm shells, in Scranton Pennsylvania, had boosted production by 50 percent in recent months and that more capacity was set to come online.

A $400 million modernization of the Scranton Army Ammunition Plant and two other ammunition plants in the nearby town Wilkes-Barre has helped US national 155 mm shell production to increase from 24,000 rounds to 36,000 rounds per month.

Three new production lines coming into service in 2025 will allow the Scranton facility to churn out even more of the critical munitions, a US Army representative told AP.

By this Fall increased capacity in the Pennsylvania facilities, along with a brand-new shell factory in Mequite, Texas should increase overall US shell production to 80,000 rounds a month, the figure rising to 100,000 a month by summer 2025, the US-based military review group Defense News Army reported on Thursday.

Aside from Ukraine’s needs fighting Russia in Europe’s biggest conventional war since World War II, Pentagon logisticians are grappling with the need to supply US ally Israel, whose army is fighting a firepower-intense asymmetric war against the Palestinian group Hamas, as well replacing shrinking ammunition stocks available to their own forces.

In Europe, according to recent corporate statements, plans to meet rocketing demand for artillery shells are likewise moving forward. The major German arms producer Rheinmetall announced over the summer it would produce 700,000 shells of all types in 2024, and 1 million per year by 2026 using production facilities in Hungary, Romania, Spain, Lithuania, Australia, South Africa and Germany. When accomplished, this would be a breathtaking ten-fold increase over Rheinmetall’s reported 2022 capacity of 70,000 shells.

Manufacturers in France, Norway and Finland in the first half of 2024 also announced plans to increase ammunition production from a current 400,000 shells a year, of all types, to a collective two million, but only in 2027 or 2028.

Currently the sum total of 155 mm shells being sent Ukraine from both Europe, and the US right now is a closely-held military secret. The figure is probably around 120,000 rounds a month or 1.5 million shells a year, or roughly one quarter or less of what Ukraine’s allies are hoping to be able to deliver three or four years from now, the Kyiv Post has estimated.

The actual number of shells the Ukrainian army is able to fire allowing for logistics difficulties, local shortages and combat losses, about one-third of what is needed to efficiently defend, and one-fifth or less of what AFU units need to conduct artillery support for offensive action, military analysts have said. Reports of shell shortages across the AFU have been almost continuous since mid-2022.

According to recent frontline accounts from both Russian and Ukrainian troops, Russian forces have more than enough ammunition to saturate Ukrainian positions before launching assaults, and in critical sectors can fire off hundreds of shells prior to a major attack. Ukrainian gunners complain of having only one or two dozen rounds available to shoot back. Front-line Ukrainian soldiers usually estimate the Russian firepower advantage at between as much as ten to one.

Recent losses of ground by Ukrainian forces in the hard-pressed Pokrovsk sector have followed repeated Russian infantry assaults able to reach Ukrainian lines without being hit by saturating artillery strikes. Among Ukrainian drone operators’ frustration is at times high because they see enemy soldiers walking out in the open, but the Ukrainian gunners can’t afford to waste more than a few shells on even a perfect target.

Speaking at a Wednesday press conference, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Kyiv’s victory or defeat in the war was directly linked to allied-supplied arms and ammunition, and how much of it was able to reach Ukraine’s troops.

“Our entire (war) plan depends on this, whether they will give us what they say they are planning to give, or whether they don’t,” Zelensky said.