Kremlin Seeks to Play Down Ukraine's Incursion

The Kremlin's response to Ukrainian soldiers controlling a slice of Russia's Kursk region has been muted so far, as it gets on with business as usual rather than making threatening speeches.

President Vladimir Putin has opted for his go-to style of downplaying uncomfortable news, referring to the largest incursion in Russia since World War II as "the situation that has developed."

"It's the usual way he acts in similar circumstances: disappearing until the situation sizzles down and then making it look like everything is normal," said political scientist Ekaterina Schulmann.

Putin has reserved his harshest comment on the surprise offensive to an unlikely audience: three mothers who lost children in the 2004 Beslan school massacre in Russia's North Caucasus.

"These enemies are continuing their work, trying to shake our country," Putin told the women on a visit this week ahead of the anniversary, likening the incursion to Islamist terrorism and vowing to "defeat these criminals."

- Used to 'failure' -

Ukrainian officials have said they hope the surprise move will turn the tide of war and force Russia to negotiate "on our own terms" by making Russians frustrated with Putin's invasion.

The reality, experts warned, is likely to be very different.

Russia has been at war for 30 months and tolerates no criticism: Russians, they say, have become used to the highs and lows of their army's feats and will not be put off by weeks -- even months -- of losing some border villages.

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"Yes, it hurts, we can see that from reactions (of officials)," Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Centre, said.

"There is a difference between pulling out of Kharkiv and Kherson, between losing Russian territory and losing conquered territory."

But he added: "I do not think that for Russia's elite or population, failure is some kind of major news".

Militarily, Russia has few current options in Kursk.

"Putin will not bomb Kursk region like he bombed Bakhmut," said analyst Tatiana Stanovaya.

She said it was unclear how long the Ukrainians can hold on: "But there is the likelihood that it is for months."

Gabuev said Moscow stands a "chance" to take back the territories but it would "take time."

Both warned Russia is weighing its response, saying Putin usually takes his time.

"We will know sooner or later how Putin will take revenge," Gabuev said.

- Russians 'waiting' for talks -

Coverage on Russian state television has focused on the humanitarian angle -- Kursk evacuees and the volunteers helping them.

Anger over how Ukrainian troops could so easily cross into Russian territory and how slowly the government responded, has been "muted" and largely confined to affected families, Gabuev said.

Russia's border regions, he said, have statistically higher support for the offensive and are unlikely to turn on the Kremlin.

And in Moscow, shock passes fast after two-and-a-half years of seismic news every few weeks.

"It's not felt at a nationwide level and is just seen as part of war," Stanovaya said.

But experts said there are signs that support for a negotiated end to the fighting has increased.

"In the surveys of the past six months we see this paradoxical situation: respondents simultaneously say: 'we support everything, we were right to start the special military operation, but it has to end'," Schulmann said.

Stanovaya said Kursk had "changed nothing" in Russia's "radical position", saying the Kremlin wanted to end fighting "only on its conditions."