Russia May Receive Iranian Analogue of HIMARS – Fath-360

Iran has signed a new agreement with Russia that provides for the supply of Iranian ballistic missiles for the war in Ukraine, according to Reuters.

Since the beginning of the war, Russia has been actively importing various types of weapons from all its ‘allied’ states. North Korea, with which Russia has signed a mutual defenseagreement, has already been supplying Russia with ballistic missiles for the war in Ukraine, and now Iran may initiate the delivery of such missiles.

This is not the first time that Iran has backed Russia by supplying it with weapons and training the Russian military to use them. With the assistance of Iran, Russia has launched its own production of kamikaze drones using Iranian technology, which has allowed it to terrorize Ukraine daily, destroying its infrastructure and killing civilians.

This time, Iran may provide Russia with even more dangerous weapons, namely ballistic missiles. The supply contract was signed back in 2023. The Russian military is currently undergoing training and learning to use these missiles. The United States has already warned Iran of ‘swift and severe’ consequences if the information about the hundreds of missiles being shipped to Russia is confirmed. US State Department spokesman Vedant Patel stressed that such a transfer would be considered a serious escalation of the war. Given these statements, it is apparent that the information about the existing plans to transfer these missiles to Russia is true.

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The Kremlin has shown interest in Iranian ballistic missiles such as Fateh-110 and Zolfaghar as early as in 2022.

Currently, Russia expects to receive other missiles from Iran, including Fath-360 and Ababil. The Fath-360 is a tactical ballistic missile, which, unlike other ballistic missiles, has aa relatively short range. The Ababil is a smaller guidedmissile that could be compared to missiles for multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS). In terms of concept, Ababil missiles are similar to the GMLRS guided missiles used in the HIMARS systems. By design and tactics use of the Fath-360 is more akin to the ATACMS ballistic missiles, which are also part of the HIMARS arsenal. Both Iranian missiles are surface-to-surface weapons and are launched from ground-based launchers to strike ground targets.

Russia likely plans to use these missiles primarily in frontline zones, while holding on to its own ballistic missiles to strike remote Ukrainian cities. This will allow Russia to use Iskanders and North Korean KN-23 and KN-24 missiles only for shelling targets at the rear.

Ababil

The Ababil missile (translated from Arabic as ‘flock’) is named after the mythical birds that that destroyed the army of an Ethiopian commander. This symbolizes the tactics of its use launching not single missiles, but a whole ‘flock’. One Ababil system is designed to hold 8 missiles that can be launched simultaneously.

Russians were introduced to these missiles in 2023, when Iran presented Ababil at the Army-2023 arms exhibition in Moscow. The Iranians reported that Ababil can hit targets at a maximum range of 86 kilometers and has two versions with different guidance systems. The basic version is equipped with inertial and satellite navigation, while the improved version is additionally equipped with an optoelectronicguidance system at the final stage of flight.

Inertial guidance is the simplest method of rocket navigation. It is based on the use of an inertial measuring device placed in the missile, which monitors its motion parameters, generates control commands and automatically guides it to the target by adjusting the direction, force and duration of the engine. Inertial guidance functions autonomously, without interaction with the external environment, which provides it with a high level of protection against electronic warfare. However, the use of the inertial system alone can negatively affect the missile's accuracy. That’s why Iranian engineers have additionally equipped the basic version of the Ababil missile with a satellite navigation system.

The satellite navigation system allows for high accuracy in determining the location of the missile, controlling its height, speed and position in space.

This method of guidance is essential for delivering the most accurate strikes possible, but it has its drawbacks. For example, satellite guidance can fail completely if the missile gets within the range of EW guidance interference. Then, communication with the satellite is lost, and the missile will automatically switch to the inertial guidance system.

The optoelectronic guidance system installed on the upgraded Ababil missiles enables the missile to cross-reference images of the earth's surface with landmark images, which its electronics rely on during flight. To do this, space reconnaissance satellites take photographs of the target to be hit. These images are uploaded to the missile's electronic system. Uploads are not limited to a single photo – a whole series can be used, for example pictures of the entire flight path. The missile's optical station scans the ground during flight and analyses the landscape against the reference images, ensuring high accuracy of targeting.

The use of such a guidance system makes the missile not only resistant to electronic warfare technologies, but also significantly boosts its accuracy compared to the use of an inertial system alone.

Fath-360

The Iranian Fath-360 ballistic missile, also known as the BM-120, is 5.1 meters long, 368 mm in diameter, and weighs 787 kg, of which 150 kg is the warhead. For the first time information about the Fath-360 appeared in 2021. The missile travels along a full ballistic trajectory and can reach speeds of up to Mach 4. The Fath-360 has a launch range of 30 to 120 kilometers. The guidance system of this missile combines

inertial navigation and a satellite system. Iran declares the accuracy of the Fath-360 with probable deviation from the target of less than 30 meters.

The Fath-360 is a smaller version of another Iranian ballistic missile, the Fateh-110,

whose engineering history is closely linked to the Soviet S-75 system. In accordance with the Iranian practice of masking military equipment, the launcher for the Fath-360 missile launcher is disguised as an ordinary civilian truck. One such truck can simultaneously accommodate up to six Fath-360 missiles.

If Russia receives these ballistic missiles, the situation on the frontline and in nearby cities could become much more complicated. It is worth remembering that Ukraine still has extremely limited means to counter ballistic threats, especially when it comes to missiles capable of ranges up to 120 kilometers in an extremely short time frame. If launched at themaximum distance, it can take less than two minutes from launch to impact, making it particularly dangerous for both civilian and military targets.

In such a situation, the most effective solution for Ukraine would be to destroy the launchers along with the missiles before they are launched. It is extremely important to provide Ukraine with high-tech weapons capable of countering ballistic missile threats. The factor of political pressure on Iran is also important to force Tehran to refrain from providing Russia with various types of missiles. So, we can only hope that Ukraine's partners are fully aware of the situation and understands all the potential dangers that may arise if Russia does receive these missiles.