Kursk Incursion – Russian Blame Game Begins, Heads May Roll

The Russian news site Vestka, citing sources in the government and parliament, reports that because of what is happening near Kursk following Ukraine’s invasion, where Moscow has lost control over a territory of 1,000 square kilometers (621 square miles) and 82 settlements, criminal cases may be taken out against representatives of the military, security and civilian authorities, who allowed this situation to happen.

One of its contacts said that when the news of the initial stages of Ukraine’s move into Kursk took place on Tuesday, Aug. 6, it was met with apathy amongst officials who did not consider it to be a serious threat.

That view was exemplified by the performance of Valery Gerasimov, Russia’s Chief of the General Staff at the next day’s briefing.  Live on television he dismissed the significance of what was happening, claiming that Ukraine’s advance had been stopped and the “enemy was defeated” losing more than 100 of its troops, 54 armored vehicles and seven tanks. This, even though social media from both sides was still reporting Kyiv’s forces were still moving forward.

Another source, from Moscow’s City Hall, told Vestka: “It seemed like it wouldn’t last long,” it would be dealt with “in two or three days, or a week,” the life for Moscow’s political elite “did not change much, conversations did not touch on the topic [Kursk].”

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That all changed on Aug. 8-9, as the buildup of Ukrainian troops, their advance into the Kursk region, and the area occupied by Kyiv’s forces all increased. The source said: “We got scared,” as reports came in of a Russian military column being struck in the village of Oktyabrsky near Rylsk.

The source said they knew it was serious when “Someone began collecting humanitarian aid, I know that people even went there and delivered aid over the weekend.”

According to a Bloomberg report, Gerasimov had received intelligence on Kyiv’s plans weeks before, but chose to ignore it and did not inform Russian leader Vladimir Putin. The fact that he had fallen out of favor as a result was when Putin first tasked Alexander Bortnikov, Director of the Federal Security Service (FSB) and then Secretary of Russia’s State Council, Aleksey Dyumin, overall control of the “counter-terrorist operation” to expel Ukraine’s forces.

As things deteriorated, from the Russian perspective, in Kursk, so they did for Gerasimov. Despite having been head of the General Staff for 14 years, he has been excluded from operational planning meetings for the defense of the Kursk region that were chaired by Andrei Belousov, the Minister of Defense on Aug. 15.

Having previously been considered “fireproof” Russian sources believe he is now definitely under threat, with yet another serious failure giving Putin an excuse to continue “cleansing” of the Russian Ministry of Defense, which began with the dismissal of the former Minister, Sergei Shoigu.

The extraordinary campaign to arrest generals and senior Defense Ministry officials accused of corruption that began in May is being done either with the agreement or even the instigation of the Kremlin, according to government sources cited by the Moscow Times.

According to those sources, the arrests were prompted by the FSB and other special services to deflect criticism for the failures of Russia’s “special military operation” and to gain control of defense budgets. The continuing disaster in Kursk may give them the chance to further purge the ministry’s staff of Shoigu’s allies.

The disruption that widescale arrests and dismissals among the upper echelons of the Russian military may improve the performance of its generals in the long term, but it’s hard to see how it can do anything but benefit Ukraine in the short run.