On this day four years ago, car horns interlaced with a rock song by the Soviet band Kino called “Peremen,” Russian for changes, blared from car stereos rang out across the capital of Belarus. The tune became synonymous with the 2020 protests, along with the lost hopes and dreams of the Belarusian opposition that lived on for decades after the song’s release.
“Our hearts demand changes! Our eyes demand changes!” the song’s chorus repeated – but that change has yet to arrive.
“Peremen” and the 2020 presidential elections
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In 2020, the inadequate response to the COVID pandemic by Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko and his regime amplified the existing dissent and threatened his chances of being re-elected that year.
It also came with stiff competition from with Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, the wife of an imprisoned candidate, announcing her bid for the presidency with widespread support.
But the Lukashenko regime, often described as “the last dictatorship in Europe” by Western media, was not ready to loosen its grip on the country after 26 years in power.
At a pro-Lukashenko event on Aug. 6, three days before the election, sound engineers Kirill Galanov and Vladislav Sokolovsky put on the song “Peremen” without authorization to the surprise of those in attendance.
The song ended abruptly when security pulled the cable and the two engineers were subsequently arrested, but the song, written in the last days of the Soviet Union, had already made the news and soon became adopted as the anthem of protest against the Lukashenko regime.
Lukashenko Steps up Repression Ahead of Belarus Election, Says Rights Group
Clashes on election night
On election day, the situation remained relatively calm in the Belarusian capital – streets were relatively quiet and an absence of protests, save for the occasional appearance of the oppositions white-red-white flags.
“I was an observer at one of the polling stations in the city of Minsk. At that time, for some reason, it seemed that we would succeed, and that the system would definitely give in, because so many people were in favor of change,” “D,” an anonymous Belarusian dissident who has since left the country told Kyiv Post.
But as night fell, everything changed.
When the exit polls announced that Lukashenko won – again – allegedly securing more than 80 percent of the votes, the citizens of Minsk took to the streets, hoisting opposition flags, chanting “Long live Belarus” – a slogan popular among the Belarusian opposition – and calling for Lukashenko’s resignation.
Anticipating the protests, riot police were soon deployed, lined up with shields and began marching towards the protestors forming a human wall, soon joined by military jeeps and water cannon which began chasing protestors into the allies between houses.
Explosions from flashbangs rang through the sleepless night.
“That evening, everyone was angry at the authorities and dissatisfied with the election results … The internet was down, there was no news about what was happening, no plan of action either … The police threw grenades at us and pushed us out of the city streets.
“Many were detained and subjected to physical abuse. I returned home only in the early morning,” “D” added.
“I, like many others, did not want bloodshed in the country.”
Subsequent protests
What followed were protests followed by associated arrests across the nation, centering in Minsk.
“The following week was also tense. Here and there, in different districts of Minsk, in various cities across the republic, spontaneous, unorganized protests broke out. People were beaten and dispersed everywhere, and the temporary detention centers were overcrowded,” “D” recalled.
Perhaps pressured by the backlash Lukashenko received from the West – whose relations he had managed to thaw just a few years prior – or perhaps in an attempt to ease the social tension, the government made a surprise decision to halt its crackdowns a week or so following the election.
“On Aug. 13, the authorities began releasing prisoners. It’s hard to say what influenced this decision; most likely, they were afraid of the continued escalation of violence and needed a breather,” “D” said.
But that only persuaded more locals to display their disdain for the regime, marching day after day across Minsk, at times passing through government buildings such as the government headquarters at Lenin Square and the State Security Committee (KGB) headquarters on the Niezalieznasci Prospect – both unguarded.
There were even instances of riot police embracing protestors.
The most significant protest – and the largest in Belarusian history – took place on Aug. 16 - two weeks after the election.
On that day, in response to a pro-government rally organized by the Lukashenko regime, waves of protestors, consisting of tens of thousands of men and women, young and old, filled all corners of Minsk, waving opposition banners and flags that called for Lukashenko’s resignation and release of political prisoners.
“On Aug. 16, we joined the ‘March for Freedom,’ the largest protest in Belarusian history. On that day, the security forces practically didn’t detain anyone. The authorities were on the brink of collapse and facing a severe crisis.
“I, like many others, did not want bloodshed in the country,” “D” said.
“We chanted ‘The police are with the people!’ I don’t know what others thought, but personally, I believed that our half-million-strong protests could give someone in the security forces (Army, Police, Special Forces) a carte blanche to arrest the dictator. I hoped that something similar would happen as during the Carnation Revolution in Portugal in 1974.
“But unfortunately, no truly patriotic officers were found among us. Many years of negative selection in the security forces made it impossible for a decent person to exist in a rank higher than major.”
But the peace was short-lived, when Lukashenko, after multiple phone calls with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin, suddenly warned the country of the alleged risks from NATO and decided to resume the crackdown in the following months that continued well into the next year, which saw many beaten, arrested, and sometimes killed.
“The only non-violent measures left were strikes, but again, all the efforts in the following months were disorganized and chaotic, with initiatives coming more from the bottom than the top,” “D” said.
A turning page in modern Belarusian history
The reverberation of the elections, subsequent protests and exiles can still be felt to this day.
Within the government and the law enforcement, there came a wave of purges and resignations, with Lukashenko introducing further amendments to the constitution to further solidify his power – that will last even if he’s no longer in office.
The subsequent crackdowns have also led to waves of migration among the Belarusian intelligentsia, mostly those younger with the financial means to seek refuge in neighboring Lithuania, Poland, and beyond.
A report claimed that Belarusians accounted for almost 30 percent of asylum applications made to Poland in 2021.
Politically, the backlashes and sanctions from the West prompted Lukashenko to deepen his ties with Russia, which eventually led to Minsk’s complicit role in Moscow’s 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine when Putin launched missiles and troops moved into Ukraine through the territories of Belarus, prompting further questions as to the integrity of Belarusian sovereignty.
That said, the widespread support Tsikhanouskaya received has also led to the creation of the United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus, a transitional government in exile based in Vilnius, Lithuania that is amongst the most influential Belarusian opposition groups in exile since the Belarusian People’s Republic was founded in 1918.
The fierce crackdown on Belarusian opposition has also contributed to the formation of the Kalinoŭski Regiment, a Belarusian volunteer regiment fighting alongside Ukrainian troops who might one day help liberate Belarus.
“There are a lot of KGB agents in the army, as well as in the police, most likely they have some dirt on each senior officer.”
What could’ve been
“D” believed that things could’ve been done differently, which might have led to a different outcome, while acknowledging there were also insurmountable systematic issues – a fact that he knew all too well having been conscripted into the Belarusian military.
“In my view, it was most important to develop the idea of strikes in railway enterprises and then move on to less critical elements, as in Belarus, the railway is the heart of the economy. But unfortunately, our leaders, even when they were already abroad, were afraid to take responsibility and coordinate these processes,” he said.
He also highlighted the grassroots nature of the 2020 protests which he feels were both a blessing and a curse.
“There was a lot of initiative from the grassroots. People organized themselves in neighborhood and district chats, held actions where they lived, got to know each other.
“Before my eyes, a real, responsible, politically active civil society was being formed. I think that in 2020 we lacked coordination and leadership from above, although it’s hard for me to blame our leaders for their indecision. You never know how you would behave in someone else’s shoes,” “D” added.
But unlike Ukraine during Euromaidan in 2014, the Belarusian protests in 2020 lacked the support of the security forces the result of the country’s authoritarian nature, which was a potential key to its undoing.
“I heard some stories that also in the security forces, there were demarches among the police, some units refused to work, there were many middle-ranking officers who broke their contracts, some even recorded video messages. But there was not a single senior officer who had some people under his command and the will to fix it.
“But after my experience in the army, I understand why,” he added.
“There are a lot of KGB agents in the army, as well as in the police, most likely they have some dirt on each senior officer, and if there is no dirt, the person will not be promoted or appointed to command a unit.”
With that, just as the song fades into silence as it concludes, along with the changes that Belarusians once anticipated.
But with another election slated to take place in 2025, perhaps all it takes is to press the replay button to rekindle that call for change, as long as Belarusians have a voice – and a “heart unconquered,” as noted in the poem by Belarusian poet Yakub Kolas.
“But the voice of truth and concord
In the soul will live, undying,
With the call of freedom crying,
Ever in the heart unconquered
Its bright destiny is shining.”
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