Quid Pro Quo – Now Iran Asks Russia for Air Defense Systems

As Kyiv Post reported earlier, Russia has allegedly transferred Iskander and Murmansk-BN ballistic missile systems to Tehran after Iran threatened to strike Israel in retaliation for the killing of the Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran.

Iran, which has supplied Russia with military aid including hundreds of Shahed kamikaze drones for Moscow’s war on Ukraine, has now asked for support from the Kremlin. According to the New York Times Tehran took the opportunity presented by this week’s visit of Sergei Shoigu, secretary of Russia’s Security Council, to provide much needed advanced air defense systems as the likelihood of war with Israel escalates.

Shoigu met with newly elected President Masoud Pezeshkian, Secretary of Iran’s National Security Council Ali Akbar Ahmadian, as well as Chief of the General Staff Gen. Mohammad Bagheri, who is believed to be in charge of plans for attacks on Israel.

Following the meetings, Shoigu said that Russia is “ready for full cooperation with Iran on regional issues,” while Bagheri said relations between the countries were “deep, long-term and strategic,” adding that they will only expand under Iran’s new leadership.

According to the NYT, citing two Iranian officials familiar with military planning, including a member of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Russia has already begun to supply modern radars and air defense systems. This despite the historically close economic and cultural ties with Israel resulting from its large of Russian Jewish population. Analysts believe Moscow could not reject Tehran's appeals as it is increasingly relying on Iranian along with North Korean military support  for its war against Ukraine.

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Colin Clark, director of research at intelligence and security consulting firm Soufan Group said that in asking Russia for air defenses they are cashing in their chips but, he says, “The question is how the Russians can reassure Tehran without damaging relations with Israel.”

Iran is preparing to strike Israel to avenge the murder of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, who had been invited to Tehran to attend President Pezeshkian's inauguration. He was killed on July 31 when, according to the IRGC “a short-range projectile with a warhead weighing about 7 kilograms [15 pounds]” was fired into the a guest house in which he was staying.

Iran immediately accused Israel of carrying out the attack which Jerusalem has neither confirmed nor denied.

The international community are concerned that an Iranian attack on Israel will be met by a major response that could provoke a full-scale war in the Middle East. US officials said they expected Tehran’s strike is likely to be supported by Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen. Israel is currently preparing for what it feels could be an extensive multi-day onslaught including the organization of air defense shelters, including an underground bunker in Jerusalem, where the top political leadership will take refuge in the event of war.

In response to the situation, Washington has increased its military presence in the region by deploying an aircraft carrier strike group, a squadron of F-22 Raptor fighter jets, and additional warships to the Middle East as well as stepping up diplomatic efforts along with its G7 partners to apply diplomatic pressure on both sides to avoid escalation.