Choosing Best US Strategy Towards Russia and Ukraine

At one of the most critical moments for the current Biden administration (after his disastrous June debate), I proposed a strategy that would allow him to win both the US elections and  the World War, unleashed by Vladimir Putin’s Empire of Evil against the Free World.

The strategy I proposed boiled down to three decisive steps:

·            For health reasons, Biden should step aside as both a candidate and resign the presidency - allowing Kamala Harris to assume the presidency before the election would considerably expand what she would offer as a candidate.

·            On day one, President Harris complies with the requirement to provide Congress with her administration's objectives for the war in Ukraine by proclaiming the McCaul-Rogers-Turner Proposed Plan for Victory in Ukraine as an official, bi-partisan US VICTORY PLAN.

·            In implementing this plan President Harris would position herself as the Leader of the Free World, engaged in an existential battle with the forces of absolute evil.  In close coordination with President Macron and other leaders of the Coalition of the Willing, she would make all key decisions regarding the prompt delivery of state-of-the-art Western aircraft and technical specialists to Ukraine. (150-200 planes).

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As of today, the first step of this proposed strategy has been partially implemented, a step that has turned this election campaign around for the Democrats. It will now be a close contest as both sides make their pitches to undecided voters.  

Many Pro-Ukraine Republicans are now among these undecided voters - mere hours after Biden stepped aside as a presidential candidate, The Nikki Haley Votes PAC called its followers to support Kamala Hurris.

Haley voters are currently unhappy.  First, they heard about alleged “consultations” on a peace deal for Ukraine involving Trump and Putin, with Orbán as a mediator.  Then Trump chose JD Vance, a rabid “Ukrainophobe,” as his running mate. 

To keep Ukraine supporters in their orbit, Republican strategists have initiated a discussion on various versions of the “Trump plan” that looks more or less favorably on Ukraine.  The version that has gained the most traction is the “Pompeo plan.”

Mike Pompeo served as Secretary of State in the Trump Cabinet - a crucial role to say the least.  His predecessor, Rex Tillerson, never hit it off with Trump - having referred to him as a moron in public, he eventually resigned slamming the door behind him as he left. 

Pompeo saw his role as much more far-reaching and constructive.  He was a kind of wise mentor encouraging the novice's positive foreign policy instincts towards the Middle East, and played the role of attentive nursemaid, cleaning up after Trump’s diplomatic missteps, such as his relationship with NATO.  Pompeo was also more diplomatic than Tillerson - instead of referring to his boss as a moron, he came up with the term “alternative genius.”

Mike Pompeo is an ardent Atlanticist.  He supports Ukraine and, if Trump wins another term in office, hopes to play the same role of wise guardian within the administration.  His plan can be summed up as follows:  

·            Both sides agree to a cease-fire along the existing entire line of contact.  They agree to nothing else.  NATO, either collectively or led by the leading member states, take on responsibility for defending every inch of Ukrainian territory on the Western side of the cease-fire line.

·            Putin would be welcome, of course, to test these obligations in any way he sees fit, but he knows full well what the consequences will be.  The West will meanwhile never recognize the territory currently held by Moscow’s forces and proxies as legally belonging to Russia.  

It's a solid plan.  In essence, we are talking about accepting a divided country into NATO (as West Germany in 1955). But the plan has two major flaws.  

Firstly, it's Pompeo's plan and not Trump's. The latter's mysterious psychological addiction to the dictator in the Kremlin has not waned in the slightest and is bound to produce a wealth of surprises.

Secondly, why should Ukraine have to pay such a hefty price to guarantee its security?  We are talking about the occupation of 20 percent of its territory to continue for several more years.  As I see it, both Pompeo and even a slew of military experts lack a deep understanding of the logical structure of this war.  

They proceed from a belief that the conflict has reached a stalemate - a war of attrition - and that neither side is capable of breaking through the front line.  The Russians not only will never make it to Kyiv; they won't even take Kharkiv.  In the same vein Ukrainians will never fight their way back to the borders of 1991 and liberate all occupied territory.  This is all true.

Ukraine has another path to victory. 

The Russian-Ukrainian war is not merely a deadlocked confrontation along the thousand-kilometer line of contact.  The war has a completely different center of gravity (cf. Clausewitz) - the Crimean Peninsula.  Both sides highly value the political symbolism of Crimea which, at the same time, represents the most vulnerable component of Russia’s military machine. Ukraine managed to dislodge Moscow’s naval forces from its Crimean ports while lacking aircraft or a naval fleet.  And now, having received long-range missiles, Ukraine has been striking airfields in the Crimea on a regular basis - it turns out Russian air defense systems are inadequate.

If the skies over Ukraine become dotted with 100, or, even better, 200 state-of-the-art Western aircraft, the country will not only gain supremacy in the air but will also render Russia's occupation of the Crimea untenable.  Moscow will have to withdraw from the peninsula or be completely destroyed from afar.  

The loss of Crimea would result in the political (and potentially physical) death of Vladimir Putin and and end to the war. 

The “Proposed Plan for Victory in Ukraine” is much preferable to Pompeo's.  This Republican (McCall, Roger, Turner) Plan represents the best strategy for Harris to win the election and consequently win the World war that some fear is inevitable.