WORLD BRIEFING: July 16, 2024

Donald Trump will quickly demand peace talks between Russia and Ukraine if he wins November’s US presidential election and has developed “well-founded plans” for doing so, Hungary’s Viktor Orbán has claimed after private discussions with the Republican candidate. That prospect means the EU should reopen direct diplomatic communication with Russia and start “high-level” negotiations with China to find a peaceful solution to the war in Ukraine, the Hungarian prime minister said in a private letter to EU leaders following consultations in Moscow and Beijing. Orbán also said in the letter that on the basis of his recent discussions with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the “general observation” was “that the intensity of the military conflict will radically escalate in the near future…We can expect no peace initiative coming from [Trump] until the elections. I can however surely state that shortly after his election victory, he will not wait until his inauguration, but will be ready to act as a peace broker immediately,” Orbán wrote in his letter sent to European Council president Charles Michel and other EU leaders. “He has detailed and well-founded plans for this.” That means the EU should anticipate the shift in US policy, Orbán said, and either embrace the need for immediate negotiations between Russia and Ukraine or take on more responsibility for funding Ukraine’s defence. “I am more than convinced that in the likely outcome of the victory of President Trump, the proportion of the financial burden between the US and the EU will significantly change to the EU’s disadvantage when it comes to the financial support of Ukraine,” Orbán wrote in his letter - FT

Donald Trump has formally announced a running mate who’s opposed to funding Kyiv’s war against Russia. J.D. Vance, a junior senator from Ohio, voted against the supplemental aid package of more than $60 billion to Ukraine. “I remain opposed to virtually any proposal for the United States to continue funding this war,” he wrote in a New York Times OpEd in April. The 39-year-old first term senator was a “never Trump guy” but over the span of about eight years has morphed into one of his strongest surrogates. Reaction to Trump’s VP pick has been mixed. “Trump’s V.P. pick is great news for the wealthiest Americans and lousy news for everyone else,” Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachussets said on a call with reporters organized by the Biden campaign. “Billionaires on Wall Street and Silicon Valley are cheering, but there is no joy for working people.” In February, Vance used an opinion piece in the FT to call for Europe to take on a larger burden in supporting Ukraine.

European commissioners will boycott informal meetings held by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, and instead will be represented by lower-level bureaucrats for the duration of Budapest's six-month rotating presidency of the European Union, the European Commission announced, following Orban's unsanctioned meetings with Russian and Chinese leaders Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping. "In light of recent developments marking the start of the Hungarian Presidency, the [European Commission] President [Ursula von der Leyen] has decided that the Commission will be represented at senior civil servant level only during informal meetings of the Council," Eric Mamer, von der Leyen's chief spokesperson, announced on X - RFE/RL

President Joe Biden is on the brink of failing to win a key labor endorsement as leaders of the 1.3 million-member Teamsters union consider backing no candidate at all in the U.S. presidential race, according to two people familiar with the matter. The International Brotherhood of Teamsters decision has not been finalized and is expected to be made in the coming weeks. Not backing Biden, who the union endorsed in 2020, would compound political damage to the Democratic president's reelection bid. A Teamsters endorsement for Republican candidate Donald Trump appears unlikely, sources say, but deep internal divisions mean the union may not back any candidate at all. That would mark the first time since 1996, according to news reports. Since his halting performance in a presidential debate on June 27, Biden has already seen a number of lawmakersand donors ask him to stand aside, worried about his ability to get reelected and to serve another four-year term. Some allies say they believe Saturday's Trump assassination attempt could quiet those calls, but other Democrats doubt that. - Reuters

At least 22 Palestinians were killed and 100 wounded in a strike on Sunday on a UN-run school in central Gaza being used as a shelter by displaced people, the Hamas-run health ministry says. The Israeli military said it had targeted a number of Hamas “terrorists” operating from Abu Oraiban School in the urban Nuseirat refugee camp. Witnesses told BBC Arabic there were no armed fighters there and that children were among the casualties. It was the fifth attack on or near to schools in eight days. Residents said there were fresh air and artillery strikes in central Gaza on Monday, with five people reportedly killed when a house in Maghazi refugee camp was hit. The Israeli military said its aircraft had struck dozens of “terror targets” across the territory over the past day. - BBC

A Dubai prince will not establish a business presence in Hong Kong “in the foreseen future” after a months-long controversy over his pledge to set up a US$500 million family office in the city. But the Dubai-based family office of Sheikh Ali Rashed Ali Saeed Al Maktoum said that it was still interested in exploring business ventures in the region - SCMP