WORLD BRIEFING: July 3, 2024

Democrats’ panic over Joe Biden’s disastrous debate performance is turning to anger at the president’s family and close circle of advisers for concealing his condition and their unwillingness to countenance his exit from the White House race. Interviews with party donors, consultants and operatives since Thursday’s debate have revealed a growing belief that Biden is no longer fit to challenge Donald Trump for the presidency and should make way for a younger candidate. The same people have also expressed exasperation that first lady Jill Biden, the president’s sister Valerie Biden Owens and a group of aides with the most influence over the president have refused to push for his withdrawal, leaving the party in crisis as it tries to halt Trump’s re-election bid. “There seems to be a level of anger that the inner circle has been keeping things from all of us,” a veteran Democratic operative said, noting that many in the party were irritated that the Biden team had not been more transparent about the president’s weakened state.  “People want to make sure that . . . the president and his team are being candid with us about his condition, that this was a real anomaly and not just the way he is these days,” Sheldon Whitehouse, the Democratic senator from Rhode Island, told a local television station on Monday. One person familiar with the situation said some of the intelligence officials who give Biden his daily intelligence briefing had noticed his decline as early as last year, undermining claims from White House and campaign political figures about the president’s mental acuity. - FT

Rishi Sunak is on the verge of leading the Conservative Party to the worst defeat in its 346-year history, according to a new poll for The Independent. The Techne UK survey of 5,503 voters has given Labour a 19-point lead at 40 per cent – almost twice the Tories’ 21 per cent – with just one day of campaigning left to go. While the Conservatives have gained two points from late last week, and Labour dropped one with Reform UK also losing a point to 16 per cent, the narrowing of the polls appears to be too little, too late for Mr Sunak after a disastrous campaign. If this is how the election pans out, the Tories would be only the third largest party on 66 seats, behind the Lib Dems on 70, while Labour would have a majority of 284, according to Electoral Calculus. Reform would get a foothold in parliament with six seats. - The Independent

Another poll places the Conservatives at just 64 seats. If this happens, “it would be the fewest seats the party has won at an election since it was formally established in 1830s,” The Telegraph said.

French voters are waiting to see the full line-up for the second round of parliamentary elections, as scores of candidates stood aside in order to help defeat the far-right National Rally (RN). Parties have until 18:00 (17:00 BST) Tuesday evening to register contenders for Sunday. Only then will it be clear how many from the left and centre have abandoned the race in the hope of unifying the anti-RN vote. Last Sunday’s first round produced a big victory for the party of Marine Le Pen, which - with allies - won around 33% of the vote. A broad left-wing alliance came second, and President Emmanuel Macron’s centrists third. But Ms Le Pen’s chances of winning an outright majority in the 577-seat National Assembly have been dented by the blocking tactics of her party’s enemies. In more than half of constituencies – around 300 – three candidates qualified from the first round of voting (nearly everywhere else it was just two). If in these constituencies one of the two non-RN runners stands aside, this increases the chances of the RN candidate being defeated. By midday Tuesday around 200 candidates from the left and centre were understood to have taken the step. - BBC

The United States will soon announce more than $2.3 billion in new security assistance for Ukraine, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said on July 2 during a meeting with his Ukrainian counterpart at the Pentagon. Ukrainian officials have been urging their allies for months to supply more air-defense systems to defend against frequent missile and drone attacks from Russian forces following Moscow's 2022 invasion. Austin said the latest weapons package for Ukraine would include arms like anti-tank weapons and air-defense interceptors and will allow accelerated procurement of NASAMS and Patriot air defense interceptors. - RFE/RL

Chinese and Russian companies are developing an attack drone similar to an Iranian model deployed in Ukraine, European officials familiar with the matter said, a sign that Beijing may be edging closer to providing the sort of lethal aid that western officials have warned against. The companies held talks in 2023 about collaborating to replicate Iran’s Shahed drone, and started developing and testing a version this year in preparation for shipment to Russia, said the officials, who asked not to be identified to discuss private information. The Chinese drones have yet to be used in Ukraine, they said. Providing Russia a Shahed-like attack drone would mark a deepening of Beijing’s support for Russia despite repeated warnings from the US and its allies. President Xi Jinping has sought to portray China as neutral in the conflict in Ukraine even as western officials say it’s provided components and other support for President Vladimir Putin’s forces. - Bloomberg

Expecting a record-breaking summer, the hotel industry in Paris is becoming concerned as it experiences low occupancy rates ahead of the summer Olympic Games. With barely four weeks to go until the Olympic Games, observers say tourists seem to be turning their backs on the capital. Occupancy rates are down by almost 25% compared to last year- Euronews