ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 31, 2024

Key Takeaways from the ISW:

• US and German officials confirmed that the United States and Germany have changed their policies to allow Ukraine to use US- and German-provided weapons to strike Russian territory with some restrictions but did not offer precise details about these restrictions.
• Ukrainian forces conducted a series of drone and missile strikes against a Russian long-range radar system in occupied Crimea and an oil depot in Krasnodar Krai on May 31 following the May 30 Ukrainian strike against the Kerch Strait ferry crossing.
• Ukraine signed long-term bilateral security agreements with Sweden, Iceland, and Norway on May 31.
• Russia's continued efforts to rally Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) member countries around an imagined confrontation with the West likely stems from Russian concerns about the CSTO's longevity as a vector for Russian influence.
• Although Russian forces made significant tactical gains in northern Kharkiv Oblast in early May 2024, Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov heavily overestimated Russian advances in Ukraine since the start of 2024.
• Ukraine and Russia conducted a one-for-one prisoner of war (POW) exchange on May 31, the first POW exchange since February 8.
• The People's Republic of China (PRC) announced on May 31 that it will not join the June 2024 Ukraine peace summit.
• Russian forces recently advanced near Vovchansk, Avdiivka, and Donetsk City.
• Russian State Duma Information Policy Committee Chairperson Alexander Khinshtein announced on May 30 that he and Duma Security Committee Chairperson Vasily Piskarev submitted a bill for the Duma's consideration that would eliminate toll fees for Russian military, Rosgvardia, and Federal Security Service (FSB) vehicles.

Authors: Riley Bailey, Christina Harward, Angelica Evans, Grace Mappes, and Frederick W. Kagan.

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