Potential Russian Assault on Sumy Region – Ukraine Border Guard

An assault by Russian forces on the Sumy region should not be ruled out, Ukraine’s Border Guard spokesperson Andriy Demchenko said.

“The enemy can at any moment, even if he does not have sufficient forces, try to do something similar to what is currently happening in the Kharkiv region,” he told Radio Svoboda.

According to Demchenko, Russian forces could attack Sumy to stretch the line of active combat and to “stretch the defense forces of our country.”

He added that the border with Russia is quite long, saying: “Only in the Sumy region – more than 560 kilometers.”

“Even involving the forces that we have, we have to keep our defense strong because the enemy prevails in terms of equipment, means of attack, and personnel, unfortunately,” Demchenko said.

According to a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Ukrainian sources indicated that Russian forces “are concentrating limited, understaffed, and incohesive forces in the Sumy direction,” but a Russian force grouping like this would likely succeed in attracting and holding Ukrainian forces along the international border.

On May 20, the deputy commander of a Ukrainian brigade in the northern Kharkiv region reported that Russian forces, including Chechen units, were gathering in the Sumy sector. However, the small number of Russian troops indicates that their goal is likely to draw and fix Ukrainian forces at the international border.

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Kyrylo Budanov, head of Ukraine's military intelligence (HUR), told The New York Times that Ukraine will be able to strengthen its positions and stabilize the front in the next few days, but Russia will launch a new offensive further north of Kharkiv, in the Sumy region.

Budanov said that the current Russian attacks in the northeast aim to stretch the already thin reserves of Ukrainian soldiers and distract them from fighting elsewhere.

The Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) are redeploying troops from other parts of the front to bolster their defenses in the northeast, but have had difficulty finding personnel.

Russia’s latest offensive is believed to be aimed at establishing a “buffer zone” along the region’s borders to limit Ukrainian attacks into Russia, which have intensified recently.

The General Staff of the AFU reported on May 13 ongoing battles for the border town of Vovchansk in the Kharkiv region, with Russia achieving tactical successes.