Ukraine is preparing for a significant counteroffensive in 2025, a move made possible by a substantial $61 billion military aid package from the United States. This aid will enable Kyiv to hold its ground throughout 2024, effectively preventing further Russian successes on the battlefield.
Jake Sullivan, a key figure in the US President's administration as the national security adviser, unveiled this plan during his speech at the FT Weekend festival in Washington on May 4, as reported by the Financial Times.
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He said that despite the recent funding boost in April, he still anticipates Russian advances, asserting that the situation cannot be changed with the push of a button.
Sullivan highlighted that the success of this counteroffensive would be contingent upon additional funding, which would need approval from Congress and the White House through new financial assistance packages.
"With new support from Washington, Kyiv will be able to hold its ground throughout 2024, guaranteeing Ukraine's ability to deter the Russian offensive," Sullivan stated.
Looking ahead to 2025, Sullivan stressed Ukraine's intentions to regain control over territories taken by Russia.
These remarks provide the clearest insight into the White House's stance on the future development of the war, particularly in the event of Joe Biden's reelection as president in November this year.
Russia is expected to launch a major offensive in the Kharkiv and Sumy regions, according to Ukraine's military intelligence service (HUR) deputy chief Vadym Skibitsky, who recently spoke with The Economist.
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The realization of these plans depends on the resilience of the Ukrainian defense in Donbas. The main attack will begin “in late May or early June,” Skibitsky said.
The Russian forces have deployed 514,000 troops in the Ukrainian operation. The northern grouping, based across the border from Kharkiv, has 35,000 troops, but it is planned to expand to 50-70,000.
According to Skibitsky, the Russian Defense Ministry is also “forming a reserve division” (15 to 20,000 people) in central Russia, which could be added to the main forces.
However, he said this is “not enough” for an operation to capture a large city. The Economist said that the Western military shares the same opinion. However, smaller-scale operations are possible.
“A quick operation to come in and come out: maybe,” said Skibitsky. “But an operation to take Kharkiv, or even Sumy city, is of a different order. The Russians know this. And we know this.”
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